Nacional vs Cerro: match statistics
Nacional vs Cerro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional played Cerro in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 10 May 2026. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
Nacional: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Cerro: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional scores 1.57 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Cerro scores 0.57 and concedes 1.43. League average: 2.46 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional 64%, Cerro 43%. Over 2.5: Nacional 64%, Cerro 29%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.34. Nacional: 12.8 shots per match, Cerro: 11.7.
Match halves
Nacional: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.71. Cerro: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.36.
Goals by minute
Nacional: 31-45+ (7 goals). Cerro: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.46 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nacional is the clear favorite: at home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per match, with a home goal difference of +2. Cerro on the road scores only 0.5 goals per match and concedes 2.33 on average, with a -11 goal difference and 0% away wins. The quality gap is evident in xG and shots — Nacional posts an average xG of 1.78 and 5.17 shots on target per match versus Cerro’s 1.36 xG and 2.5 shots on target, with conversion rates of 8% vs 4%. Form is mixed: Nacional have won only 1 of their last 5 matches and conceded 13 goals in that span, while Cerro scored 4 and conceded 6 in their last five, which highlights the hosts’ vulnerability to errors. Considering the edge in xG, shots and possession (59% vs 46%), I give Nacional the higher probability.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely: 68% vs 32%. The main argument is the recent trend of both teams — Nacional had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, and Cerro in 60%, compared to the league average of 53% BTTS. Cerro concedes as many as 2.33 goals per game this season and has no away clean sheets (0%), while Nacional has been conceding 2.6 goals on average in their last 5 matches, which increases the likelihood that both teams will score. Although seasonal goals averages are low (Nacional 0.63 at home, Cerro 0.5 away), the last 5 matches show higher values (1.6 and 0.8) and comparable xG 1.26 vs 1.36 (last 5: 1.39 vs 1.21), so both sides are creating chances. Additionally Nacional averages 4.0 shots on target vs 2.5 for Cerro and has a higher conversion rate (6% vs 4%), which further boosts the probability that the match will end with goals for both teams.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Forecast based on xG and form: in the last 5 matches Nacional has xG_for = 1.39, while opponents against them have xG_against = 1.34, yielding an expected ~ (1.39+1.34)/2 = 1.37 goals for the home side; Cerro has last5 xG_for = 1.21 and hosts’ last5 xG_against = 1.37, giving ~1.29 goals for the away side. Total expected is 2.66 goals, slightly above the 2.5 line, favoring the Over. Seasonal metrics are mixed: seasonally Nacional has 0% Over 2.5 matches versus 67% for Cerro, but in the last 5 matches Nacional had 100% Over 2.5 while Cerro had 20%, which adds uncertainty; however short-term form favors goals. Additionally Cerro concedes on average 2.33 goals this season, and both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5 = 100%), increasing the probability of at least three finishes; therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics strongly indicate a draw at half-time: Nacional has been level at the break in 8 of 8 matches (100%), averages 0.25 goals by half-time and records 88% clean sheets at the break, so the HT/FT is most likely a draw at half-time. After the break the hosts have the greater chances — Nacional earns 1.13 points per home match versus 0.17 points for the away side, while Cerro lose 83% of their matches and have not registered a win, which supports a home victory. The visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals per match versus 0.75 conceded by Nacional and have higher expected goals against (1.57 vs 1.27), so Cerro’s defense looks weaker over the full match. Additionally Nacional register more shots on target (4.0 vs 2.5) and have a higher conversion rate (6% vs 4%), therefore the optimal selection is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Cerro is 67% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Nacional · 1 pts / match - Cerro
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 175% better for: goals scored per match.
1.57 goals / match - Nacional · 0.57 goals / match - Cerro
Cerro is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Nacional · 1.43 goals / match - Cerro
Nacional scores in 86% of matches (12 of 14 matches), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 14% (2 of 14 matches).
Cerro scores in 57% of matches (8 of 14 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 21% (3 of 14 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nacional
Over / Under - Cerro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nacional is 123% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Nacional · 0.64 pts / match - Cerro
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cerro - second-half results
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional
Cerro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Nacional | Liga | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.07 | 2.46 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 53% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 46% | ▼ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 26% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 71% | ▼ 43% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 77% | ▲ 93% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Nacional 1 - 1 - 0 Cerro. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional vs Cerro?
The Primera División match finished Nacional 4:0 Cerro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Cerro?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Nacional won 1, Cerro won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Cerro?
Nacional score 1.57 goals per game on average and Cerro 0.57. The Primera División average is 2.46 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Nacional's matches and 43% of Cerro's.
What form are Nacional and Cerro in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Cerro 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Cerro?
The statistical background for Nacional vs Cerro — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.