Nacional vs Cerro Largo: match statistics
Nacional holds the advantage as the home side, which is confirmed by their +1 goal difference in home matches and a solid expected goals record (xG 1.45 vs xGA 1.2). The hosts have won 33% of their home games, keeping a clean sheet in one-third of matches, indicating a stable defense. Cerro Largo struggles away from home – they lose half of their away matches, without recording a single draw, and their defense is weaker (xGA 1.76). Both teams have identical form in their last 5 matches (PPG 1.2); however, Nacional displays better shooting efficiency at home (8% shot conversion vs. the visitors' 10%, but with significantly higher possession at 60%). Considering the hosts' advantage in possession, superior xG balance, and Cerro Largo's weaker away defense, I predict a Nacional victory, although the evenly matched nature of both teams means a draw is also a realistic scenario.
Nacional vs Cerro Largo: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional play Cerro Largo in Primera División (Uruguay). The match date is 25 March 2026 at 00:30. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Nacional: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Cerro Largo: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional scores 1.52 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Cerro Largo scores 1.10 and concedes 1.05. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional 57%, Cerro Largo 35%. Over 2.5: Nacional 67%, Cerro Largo 35%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.24. Nacional: 11.9 shots per match, Cerro Largo: 9.8.
Match halves
Nacional: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.86. Cerro Largo: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Nacional: 31-45+ (7 goals). Cerro Largo: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 2-0-0. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.
Match description
Nacional holds the advantage as the home side, which is confirmed by their +1 goal difference in home matches and a solid expected goals record (xG 1.45 vs xGA 1.2). The hosts have won 33% of their home games, keeping a clean sheet in one-third of matches, indicating a stable defense. Cerro Largo struggles away from home – they lose half of their away matches, without recording a single draw, and their defense is weaker (xGA 1.76). Both teams have identical form in their last 5 matches (PPG 1.2); however, Nacional displays better shooting efficiency at home (8% shot conversion vs. the visitors' 10%, but with significantly higher possession at 60%). Considering the hosts' advantage in possession, superior xG balance, and Cerro Largo's weaker away defense, I predict a Nacional victory, although the evenly matched nature of both teams means a draw is also a realistic scenario.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Cerro Largo is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Nacional · 1.6 pts / match - Cerro Largo
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.52 goals / match - Nacional · 1.1 goals / match - Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo is 27% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Nacional · 1.05 goals / match - Cerro Largo
Nacional scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Cerro Largo keeps a clean sheet in 30% (6 of 20 matches).
Cerro Largo scores in 60% of matches (12 of 20 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nacional
Over / Under — Cerro Largo
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cerro Largo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional
Cerro Largo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Nacional | Liga | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.86 | 2.41 | ▼ 2.15 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 52% | ▼ 35% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 46% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 27% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 73% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Nacional 2 - 0 - 0 Cerro Largo. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional vs Cerro Largo?
The Primera División match finished Nacional 3:0 Cerro Largo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Cerro Largo?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2, Cerro Largo won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Cerro Largo?
Nacional score 1.52 goals per game on average and Cerro Largo 1.10. The Primera División average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Nacional's matches and 35% of Cerro Largo's.
What form are Nacional and Cerro Largo in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Cerro Largo 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Cerro Largo?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nacional vs Cerro Largo: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.