Nacional vs Juventud: match statistics
Nacional vs Juventud: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional played Juventud in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 6 June 2026. Venue: Estadio Gran Parque Central. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Nacional: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Juventud: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional scores 1.61 and concedes 1.39 goals per match. Juventud scores 1.24 and concedes 1.59. League average: 2.47 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional 56%, Juventud 65%. Over 2.5: Nacional 67%, Juventud 59%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.47. Nacional: 12.8 shots per match, Juventud: 11.2.
Match halves
Nacional: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.83. Juventud: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.53.
Goals by minute
Nacional: 31-45+ (7 goals). Juventud: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.47 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-2. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 75%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nacional has a clear defensive advantage at home — conceding an average of 0.63 goals per home match and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of home games, while Juventud concedes 2.0 goals on average away and has no clean sheets. The hosts also create better chances: average xG at home is 1.78 versus the visitors' 1.35 xG away, with an average of 14.75 shots (5.5 on target) compared to Juventud’s 11 shots (4 on target). In the last 5 matches Nacional scored 4 goals and has a 3-1-1 record, averaging 2.0 points per game, whereas Juventud scored 8 goals in five matches and has a 2-2-1 record, averaging 1.6 points per game — this shows greater attacking efficiency from the visitors but also higher defensive vulnerability (8 conceded in the last 5). The difference in home win rate (50% for Nacional vs 14% away wins for Juventud) and xG against (0.84 vs 1.83) favors the Montevideo side. In summary, due to superior defending, better ball control (59% possession vs 50%) and higher quality chance creation, I predict a win for the hosts.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes. Juventud has a season BTTS of 86% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while recording no clean sheets (0%), which strongly indicates they regularly concede; they concede on average 2.0 goals per game with xG against 1.83. Nacional has a season BTTS of 50% (last 5: 20%), but their season attacking xG is 1.56 with xG against 1.27 and they average 5.5 shots on target per game, so they will create goal opportunities against Juventud’s defense. Average goals show Nacional scores 1.2 goals/game (last 5: 0.8) and Juventud 1.29 (last 5: 1.6); combined with Juventud’s defensive deficit this provides a strong push toward both teams scoring. Additionally, the league BTTS is 52% and Juventud have Over2.5 in 86% of matches, which further supports the Both Teams To Score scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate Nacional will score about 1.70 goals and Juventud about 1.31 (total ~3.01), based on home attack xG of Nacional 1.56 crossed with Juventud’s defensive xG 1.83 and vice versa 1.35 vs 1.27. Juventud shows very high high-scoring match metrics – 86% of their season matches are over 1.5 and 86% over 2.5, while Nacional at home records over 1.5 in 60% and over 2.5 in 40% of matches, which strongly signals at least 2 goals. Additionally BTTS is 86% for Juventud and 50% for Nacional, and in the last 5 matches Juventud scored 8 and conceded 8 (1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded average), whereas Nacional is 4/4 (0.8/0.8), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Shot and efficiency stats confirm this: Nacional has 5.5 SOT and xG 1.56, Juventud 4.0 SOT and xG 1.35 with conversion 12% vs 11% for the home side. As a result the strongest and most probable pick is Over 1.5 goals, hence the recommendation to play Over 1.5 (probability ~88%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with Nacional winning at full-time (X/1). Juventud shows a clear tendency to score early — in their last 5 matches the visitors netted 8 first-half goals (1.6 per game) versus Nacional’s 2 (0.4), which increases the risk of a visitor goal before the break. Nevertheless, Nacional is stronger over 90 minutes: higher xG 1.56 vs 1.35, average goals 1.2 vs 1.29 and a 40% win rate this season vs Juventud’s 14%, as well as more on-target shots 5.5 vs 4.0 — all supporting the home side to win after the break. Additionally, Nacional collected 8 second-half points (0.8 per match) versus Juventud’s 3 points (0.43), suggesting greater home effectiveness in the second half and the ability to execute a turnaround.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional | Juventud | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Juventud is 11% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Nacional · 2 pts / match - Juventud
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.61 goals / match - Nacional · 1.24 goals / match - Juventud
Nacional is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.39 goals / match - Nacional · 1.59 goals / match - Juventud
Nacional scores in 83% of matches (15 of 18 matches), while Juventud keeps a clean sheet in 12% (2 of 17 matches).
Juventud scores in 76% of matches (13 of 17 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 28% (5 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nacional
Over / Under - Juventud
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Juventud is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.39 pts / match - Nacional · 1.47 pts / match - Juventud
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Juventud - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 29%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional
Juventud
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Nacional | Liga | Juventud | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.00 | 2.47 | ▲ 2.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 52% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 47% | ▲ 59% |
| Clean sheets | • 28% | 27% | ▼ 12% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 74% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Nacional 1 - 1 - 2 Juventud. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 75% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional vs Juventud?
The Primera División match finished Nacional 2:1 Juventud. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Juventud?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Nacional won 1, Juventud won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 75% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Juventud?
Nacional score 1.61 goals per game on average and Juventud 1.24. The Primera División average is 2.47 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Nacional's matches and 65% of Juventud's.
What form are Nacional and Juventud in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Juventud 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Juventud?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nacional vs Juventud: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.