Nafta vs Bistrica: match statistics
Nafta vs Bistrica: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nafta played Bistrica in 2. SNL (Slovenia). The match was played on 25 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Nafta: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Bistrica: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nafta scores 2.33 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Bistrica scores 1.71 and concedes 1.13. League average: 2.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nafta 58%, Bistrica 46%. Over 2.5: Nafta 46%, Bistrica 58%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Nafta has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.40. Nafta: 12.5 shots per match, Bistrica: 10.0.
Match halves
Nafta: half-time lead 63%, second-half goals 1.33. Bistrica: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Nafta: 76-90+ (12 goals). Bistrica: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
2. SNL: 2.78 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nafta is the clear favorite: as league leaders (position 1) they have a record of 19 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses, and at home they average 2.67 goals and 13.83 shots per match. In the last 5 matches Nafta scored 12 goals, won 4 of 5 fixtures and conceded only 2 goals, while Bistrica in their last 5 games have 6 goals, 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. Nafta averages 5.67 shots on target per game with a finishing rate of 19%, whereas Bistrica away manage only 3.75 shots on target and a 14% conversion rate, giving the hosts an advantage in quality of shooting opportunities. Defensively Nafta concede 0.83 goals at home (avg xG against 1.37), and Bistrica concede 1.17 away (xG against 1.35); additionally Nafta failed to score in 0% of home matches, while Bistrica failed to score in 42% of their away games. Considering the higher shot volume (13.83 vs 8.92), better efficiency (19% vs 14%) and superior points return over the last 5 matches (avg 2.6 points vs 1.0), I assess the probabilities as: Nafta 70%, draw 18%, Bistrica 12%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Nafta averages 2.17 goals per season with xG 1.46 and concedes 1.08 on average; in the last 5 matches they have conceded only 2 goals (0.4 per match), indicating excellent defensive form. Bistrica records 1.25 goals per match with xG 1.35; in the last 5 fixtures they scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) and BTTS occurred in 4 of those 5 games (80%). At the same time Bistrica failed to score in 42% of matches this season, while Nafta keeps a clean sheet in 33% of home appearances, which significantly reduces the probability of BTTS. Seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Nafta and 42% for Bistrica against a league level of 49%, so the market is close to balanced, but I place greater weight on Nafta’s form (0.4 goals conceded in L5) and Bistrica’s high percentage of matches without scoring. For these reasons I assign a 42% probability to BTTS and 58% to No BTTS, selecting “No Goal” as the best pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Nafta scores an average of 2.17 goals per game (56 goals this season), Bistrica 1.25 (41 goals); in the last 5 matches Nafta has 12 scored and 2 conceded (averages 2.4 and 0.4), while Bistrica has 6 scored and 7 conceded (1.2 and 1.4). xG analysis shows home xG 1.46 and away xG 1.35, and opponents concede on average 1.35 (Bistrica) and 1.51 (Nafta); Nafta averages 11 shots and 4.5 on target with a 20% conversion rate, versus 8.92 and 3.75 with 14% for Bistrica. Averaging these pairs gives an expected ~1.40 goals for Nafta and 1.43 for Bistrica, i.e. a total ≈2.83 goals. Seasonal percentages show over 1.5 in 92% of Nafta’s matches and 75% for Bistrica, over 2.5 in 58% for both, and over 3.5 in 33% and 25%. Based on a cumulative xG ≈2.83 and a Poisson distribution I estimate over 1.5 ≈78%, over 2.5 ≈54% and over 3.5 ≈32%, so the strongest signal is to play over 1.5 (line 1.5) due to high seasonal shares and the projected 2.83 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Nafta has a clear seasonal advantage: averaging 2.17 goals per match versus Bistrica’s 1.25, and a 58% home win rate compared to the visitors’ 25%, which raises the likelihood of a home victory. The hosts led at the break in 5 matches (42% of HT cases) and score an average of 0.92 first-half goals versus 0.83 for the away side, so a lead at the break for the home team is more probable. In second halves Nafta averages 1.25 goals while Bistrica only 0.42; additionally the hosts have 83% of matches with at least one goal after the break, favoring maintaining or increasing the lead. Shot and finishing metrics (11 shots and 4.5 on target with a 20% conversion for the hosts versus 8.92 shots, 3.75 on target and 14% for the visitors) and xG 1.46 vs 1.35 also support the scenario of the hosts leading and winning. Therefore the safest HT/FT pick is 1/1 (36%), with alternatives X/1 (14%) and X/X (12%) arising from the possibility of a draw at half-time followed by a home turnaround or a draw throughout.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nafta | Bistrica | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nafta is 160% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Nafta · 1 pts / match - Bistrica
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nafta is 36% better for: goals scored per match.
2.33 goals / match - Nafta · 1.71 goals / match - Bistrica
Nafta is 51% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Nafta · 1.13 goals / match - Bistrica
Nafta scores in 100% of matches (24 of 24 matches), while Bistrica keeps a clean sheet in 33% (8 of 24 matches).
Bistrica scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Nafta keeps a clean sheet in 42% (10 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nafta
Over / Under - Bistrica
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nafta is 49% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.17 pts / match - Nafta · 1.46 pts / match - Bistrica
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nafta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 63% of matches and wins 79%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bistrica - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +8 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nafta
Bistrica
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (2. SNL).
Teams vs league
| Nafta | Liga | Bistrica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.08 | 2.78 | • 2.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 50% | ▼ 46% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 53% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 42% | 29% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 73% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 79% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- NaftaGoalMark Kerin
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Nafta 1 - 0 - 0 Bistrica. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nafta vs Bistrica?
The 2. SNL match finished Nafta 2:1 Bistrica. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nafta vs Bistrica?
Nafta score 2.33 goals per game on average and Bistrica 1.71. The 2. SNL average is 2.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Nafta's matches and 46% of Bistrica's.
What form are Nafta and Bistrica in?
Over the last 5 games Nafta have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Bistrica 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nafta vs Bistrica?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.