Nafta vs Radomlje: match statistics

Radomlje arrive in significantly better form: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, while Nafta have managed only 4, with the visitors’ goal difference over that period standing at 16:6 compared with the hosts’ 9:8. Radomlje are unbeaten away from home, recording 50% wins and 50% draws, whereas Nafta have lost 75% of their home matches. The visitors average 2.5 goals per away game with a 24% conversion rate, while Nafta concede as many as 2.5 goals per home match and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Both teams have identical attacking xG averages of 1.41, but Radomlje control games more effectively, with 51% possession compared with Nafta’s 37%, and allow chances with a lower xG: 1.74 versus 2.02. The hosts are capable of scoring 2 goals per home match, so this could be an open game, but the more reliable defence and current attacking efficiency point to a Radomlje win.

BTTS - Yes is supported by 100% of Radomlje’s matches featuring goals from both teams, while Nafta has recorded this outcome in 50% of its games. Over their last five matches, both teams had a 60% BTTS rate, with their average goals scored standing at 1.8 for Nafta and as high as 3.2 for Radomlje. Nafta conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period, while its average xG conceded is a high 2.17, clearly increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring. The hosts have been less effective across the season, averaging just 0.5 goals and failing to score in 50% of their matches, but they create chances worth 1.71 xG and average 4 shots on target. Radomlje have kept no clean sheets this season and allow opponents an average of 1.74 xG, making it more likely that Nafta will also find the net.

Radomlje have been involved in very open games: they have averaged 2.5 goals per match so far, with every game clearing both the 1.5 and 2.5 goal lines. Nafta have scored just 0.5 goals per game this season, but their average xG stands at 1.71, while Radomlje concede an average of 1.5 goals and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Over the last five matches, both teams have shown strong attacking output: Nafta averaged 1.8 goals, while Radomlje scored as many as 3.2 goals per game. The 2.5 line also has some support, having been covered in 60% of Nafta’s recent matches and 80% of Radomlje’s, but Over 1.5 is clearly the safer choice. The projected total of 3.20 goals is primarily driven by the visitors’ attacking form and both teams’ vulnerability at the back.

The strongest scenario is Radomlje leading at the break and securing the win, as the visitors have won the first half in 2 of their 2 matches so far, while Nafta have lost it in 3 of 4 games. Radomlje score an average of 1.5 goals before half-time and have not conceded in this period, whereas Nafta score just 0.25 goals and concede 1.25. Over the season as a whole, the visitors remain unbeaten, recording a 50% win rate and 50% draw rate, while the hosts have lost 75% of their matches and average just 0.5 goals per game. Radomlje’s attacking edge is also evident in their conversion rate: despite registering a similar average of 4 shots on target per match, they convert 24% of their attempts into goals, compared with Nafta’s 4%. The hosts may improve after the interval, having averaged 1.0 goal in the second half across their last five matches, but their poor starts make a turnaround less likely than the visitors maintaining their lead. Overall, the most appealing HT/FT pick is 1/1.