Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a higher probability of a draw scenario. Nairobi United displays unstable home form with a record of 33% wins, draws, and losses at their home ground, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game. TransMara Sugar demonstrates solid away performance with 60% draws and only 0% losses in away matches, making them a tough opponent. The visitors have better form in their last five matches (1.4 points per game) compared to the hosts (1.0 point), as well as a more favorable goal difference away from home (+2). The average xG for both teams is very similar (0.94 vs 0.84), confirming the balanced nature of the encounter. Considering TransMara Sugar's tendency to draw away and Nairobi United's instability at home, the most likely outcome is a share of the points.
Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nairobi United played TransMara Sugar in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The match was played on 9 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Nairobi United: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. TransMara Sugar: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nairobi United scores 1.21 and concedes 1.16 goals per match. TransMara Sugar scores 0.84 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.03 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nairobi United 47%, TransMara Sugar 37%. Over 2.5: Nairobi United 32%, TransMara Sugar 26%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
Nairobi United has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.50. Nairobi United: 9.7 shots per match, TransMara Sugar: 11.2.
Match halves
Nairobi United: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.26. TransMara Sugar: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.32.
Goals by minute
Nairobi United: 0-15 (14 goals). TransMara Sugar: 0-15 (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kenyan Premier League: 2.03 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a higher probability of a draw scenario. Nairobi United displays unstable home form with a record of 33% wins, draws, and losses at their home ground, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game. TransMara Sugar demonstrates solid away performance with 60% draws and only 0% losses in away matches, making them a tough opponent. The visitors have better form in their last five matches (1.4 points per game) compared to the hosts (1.0 point), as well as a more favorable goal difference away from home (+2). The average xG for both teams is very similar (0.94 vs 0.84), confirming the balanced nature of the encounter. Considering TransMara Sugar's tendency to draw away and Nairobi United's instability at home, the most likely outcome is a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nairobi United | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 23% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nairobi United is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Nairobi United · 0.4 pts / match - TransMara Sugar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nairobi United is 44% better for: goals scored per match.
1.21 goals / match - Nairobi United · 0.84 goals / match - TransMara Sugar
TransMara Sugar is 16% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.16 goals / match - Nairobi United · 1 goals / match - TransMara Sugar
Nairobi United scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while TransMara Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 matches).
TransMara Sugar scores in 53% of matches (10 of 19 matches), while Nairobi United keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nairobi United
Over / Under - TransMara Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nairobi United is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.16 pts / match - Nairobi United · 0.89 pts / match - TransMara Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nairobi United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
TransMara Sugar - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (14 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nairobi United
TransMara Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Nairobi United | Liga | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.37 | 2.03 | ▼ 1.84 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 47% | 45% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 32% | 34% | ▼ 26% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 35% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 37% | 28% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 32% | 30% | ▲ 32% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Nairobi United 1 - 0 - 0 TransMara Sugar. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished Nairobi United 1:1 TransMara Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar?
Nairobi United score 1.21 goals per game on average and TransMara Sugar 0.84. The Kenyan Premier League average is 2.03 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Nairobi United's matches and 37% of TransMara Sugar's.
What form are Nairobi United and TransMara Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Nairobi United have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and TransMara Sugar 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.