Nancy vs Guingamp: match statistics

Nancy are 6th and Guingamp 12th, but the last five matches favour the visitors: they have taken 8 points compared with the hosts’ 6. Nancy’s home defensive record could be an advantage, conceding an average of 1 goal per match, while Guingamp have conceded 1.67 goals per away game and are yet to keep a clean sheet. At home, Nancy create chances worth 1.88 xG per match, slightly more than Guingamp’s 1.76 xG away from home, yet both sides average just 1 goal in these respective conditions. Nancy’s home form is a concern: they have lost 2 of their 3 home matches, although Guingamp have also failed to win any of their 3 away games. A slight edge in chance quality and a more solid defence give Nancy marginally better chances of winning, but a draw remains a realistic outcome.

BTTS occurred in 75% of Nancy’s matches and 67% of Guingamp’s, above the league average of 59% in both cases. In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 60% of Nancy’s games and in all 5 of Guingamp’s, strengthening the case for BTTS - Yes. Nancy average 1.75 goals scored at home, while Guingamp concede 1.67 away; meanwhile, the visitors score 1.0 goals per away match, against Nancy’s 1.75 goals conceded at home. The visitors’ attacking potential is backed up by an away xG of 1.76, although the main risk for this pick is that they failed to score in 33% of their away matches. Even so, the combination of frequent BTTS and goals conceded by both sides points towards a scenario in which each team scores.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line was cleared in 75% of Nancy's matches and 67% of Guingamp's. Nancy score an average of 1.75 goals and concede 1.75, while Guingamp concede an average of 1.67 goals, which points to at least two goals. The visitors create chances worth an average of 1.76 xG, compared with the hosts' 1.37 xG, so they could also get on the scoresheet. In their last five matches, Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Nancy's games and all of Guingamp's, but this higher line is less reliable than Over 1.5. A forecast of 3.10 goals in total supports Over 1.5, although a match finishing with exactly two goals remains possible.

A draw at half-time followed by a Nancy win is the most likely outcome: the teams were level at the break in 25% and 33% of the matches analysed, respectively, and averaged just 0.50 and 0.33 goals in the first half. A Guingamp lead at the break remains a realistic possibility, as Nancy conceded an average of 1.00 first-half goal, compared with 0.33 for the visitors, so the hosts may not take control from the outset. After the break, however, the balance of play favours Nancy, who average 1.25 goals in the second half, while Guingamp concede 1.33. The hosts won 50% of the matches analysed, whereas the visitors failed to win any and lost 67%. Guingamp's higher xG of 1.76, compared with Nancy's 1.37, makes the pick less certain, but the goals averages of 1.00 versus 1.75 favour a home win at full-time.