Nanjing City vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring: match statistics

Nanjing City have a clear home advantage: they win 44% of their home matches and concede just 1.00 goal per game on average, while Heilongjiang Lava Spring allow opponents 2.22 goals per away match. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.40 compared with the visitors’ 1.09, while their opponents’ xG against them stands at 1.68. However, Nanjing’s form is poor, as they have failed to win any of their last five matches and scored only 3 goals, significantly increasing the likelihood of a draw. Heilongjiang have scored 10 goals over the same period but have also conceded 14, and they keep a clean sheet in just 11% of away matches. Home advantage and the visitors’ weaker defence slightly favour a Nanjing City win, although a draw remains highly plausible, as the visitors draw 56% of their away matches.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are very strong: Nanjing City have seen both teams score in 89% of their matches, while Heilongjiang Lava Spring have recorded this outcome in 78%, well above the league average of 55%. The hosts have kept no clean sheets, while the visitors concede an average of 2.22 goals per match, strongly supporting a Nanjing City goal. Heilongjiang score an average of 1.67 goals per game, while Nanjing’s defence allows an average of 1.67 goals and has an xG against of 1.55. However, the hosts’ attacking form is weaker, as they have scored only 0.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches, which is why the BTTS probability is not even higher. Despite this, the visitors conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game during this period, and 80% of their matches ended with BTTS, so a scenario in which both teams score remains the strongest outcome.

Both teams scored at least 2 goals in 89% of their league matches, which clearly strengthens the case for going over the low line. Nanjing City have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 1.67 goals, while Heilongjiang Lava Spring allow opponents as many as 2.22 goals per game. The hosts generate an average of 1.50 xG, and the visitors’ defence allows 1.68 xG, while the visitors have scored 2.0 goals per game in their last five appearances. Although Nanjing have managed only 0.6 goals per match during this period, the opponent’s weak defence and the high percentage of matches in which both teams scored—89% and 78%, respectively—provide the strongest edge for Over 1.5.

A half-time draw followed by a Heilongjiang Lava Spring win is the most likely outcome, as Nanjing City were level at the break in 44% of their matches, while the hosts scored just 0.4 goals before half-time across their last five games. The visitors are showing better current attacking form: they have averaged 2.0 goals per match in their last five appearances, compared with just 0.6 for Nanjing. Heilongjiang held a lead at the break in 40% of their last five matches, whereas Nanjing were trailing at half-time in 40%, limiting the hosts’ chances of controlling the game from the outset. After the interval, the visitors average 1.0 goal, while Nanjing concede 0.78, so a balanced start could develop into an away advantage. The risk remains elevated, as Heilongjiang have conceded an average of 2.8 goals in their last five matches; however, Nanjing’s poor winless run and just 0.4 points per match support the X/2 scenario.