Nanjing City vs Nantong Zhiyun: match statistics

Nanjing City have significantly stronger attacking numbers at home: they average 1.25 goals and create 1.46 xG per match, while Nantong Zhiyun score just 0.75 goals away from home despite registering 1.18 xG. The hosts have won 50% of their home fixtures, but their current form is poor, with only 1 win and 5 goals scored in their last five matches. Nantong sit 2nd in the league and have collected 8 points across their last five fixtures, while their away defence concedes just 0.88 goals per game. However, the visitors’ highly draw-oriented profile away from home is the key factor: as many as 75% of their away matches have ended level, with only 13% losses. Nanjing’s advantage in chance creation should be neutralised by Nantong’s cautious and effective defensive approach, making a draw the most likely outcome.

Nanjing City score an average of 1.75 goals at home and concede just 0.63, while keeping a clean sheet in 63% of matches, which significantly increases the likelihood that Nantong Zhiyun will fail to score. Away from home, the visitors manage only 0.75 goals per match, average 9.5 shots and convert just 8% of their attempts, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of only 0.90. Nantong have failed to score in 38% of their away matches, whereas Nanjing City have not ended a single home game without scoring, making a one-sided result more likely than 0:0. Recent form provides an argument in the visitors’ favour, as they averaged 1.8 goals across their previous five matches and BTTS occurred in 80% of those games, but they are facing a defence that is considerably more solid than those of their recent opponents. Nanjing City’s seasonal BTTS rate of 38% compared with the league average of 54%, together with the hosts’ defensive advantage, points slightly but clearly towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score — BTTS - No.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals, as 75% of Nanjing City’s matches and as many as 87% of Nantong Zhiyun’s fixtures ended with a maximum of three goals. The hosts’ defense is particularly solid, conceding an average of 0.63 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 63% of matches, which limits the attacking potential of the visitors, who score only 0.75 goals per game on average this season. The estimated xG indicates moderate overall potential: 1.46 for Nanjing City compared with 1.18 for Nantong Zhiyun, while the model projects a total of 2.43 goals. The visitors’ last five matches were more open, averaging 1.8 goals scored, with 60% of games finishing Over 2.5 goals, but this does not alter the favorable outlook for the 3.5-goal line. The hosts average 13.25 shots with a 13% conversion rate, but Nantong Zhiyun concede just 0.88 goals per game, making a result in the 1-3 goals range more likely than four or more.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Nanjing City were level after 45 minutes in 50% of their matches, compared with 63% for Nantong Zhiyun. The hosts defend very effectively in the first half, conceding an average of just 0.13 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 88% of such periods, which limits the visitors’ chances of taking an early lead. After the break, Nanjing City’s advantage increases significantly: they score an average of 1.13 goals, earn 2.38 points per match, and win the second half in 75% of cases. Nantong score just 0.25 goals in second halves and fail to find the net in 75% of these periods. Despite the hosts’ weaker recent run, with just 1 win in their last 5 matches, Nanjing City’s season-long advantage over the full match remains significant: 88% wins compared with Nantong’s 13%.