Nantes vs Brest: match statistics
Nantes vs Brest: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nantes played Brest in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 19 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Nantes: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Brest: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nantes scores 0.86 and concedes 1.61 goals per match. Brest scores 1.32 and concedes 1.54. League average: 2.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nantes 46%, Brest 43%. Over 2.5: Nantes 43%, Brest 50%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Brest has higher xG: 1.25 vs 1.11. Nantes: 10.3 shots per match, Brest: 11.4.
Match halves
Nantes: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.36. Brest: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Nantes: 31-45+ (8 goals). Brest: 0-15 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.78 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Visitors from Brest are slight favorites: they sit 11th in the table versus Nantes in 17th and have more wins this season (10 vs 4). In the last 5 matches Nantes have failed to win (0W, 2D, 3L), scoring only 2 goals and averaging 0.4 points, while Brest in that period have 2 wins, 6 goals and average 1.2 points per game. Nantes at home generate marginally better chance metrics (avg xG 1.24, 11.36 shots and 3.29 on target) than Brest away (xG 1.06, 9.21 shots and 2.71 on target), but Brest are more efficient in conversion (11% conversion rate vs 9%). Defensively both teams are vulnerable — they concede on average 1.86 goals per game, with Brest shipping 9 goals in the last 5 fixtures versus Nantes' 5, highlighting defensive instability on both sides. Considering Brest's superior recent goal and points output and Nantes' high home loss rate (71%), I assign a higher probability to the visitors' victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I lean towards No BTTS, because Nantes has 50% clean sheets at home this season and only 36% matches with both teams scoring, while Brest has 50% BTTS but only 14% clean sheets. In the last 5 meetings BTTS occurred in only 20% of games, and Nantes scored 2 goals in those five matches (0.4 per game) versus Brest’s 6 goals (1.2 per game), indicating weak offensive form from the hosts. Season averages show Nantes scoring 1.64 and conceding 1.21 per game, and Brest scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.86, so Brest does concede regularly but their goal-scoring capability away (1.00 and 2.71 shots on target) is limited. xG data for this matchup show 1.44 xG for Nantes and 1.06 xG for Brest with 1.70 xG against Brest, suggesting Nantes creates more chances but this hasn’t fully translated into goals in the last 5 matches. Given Nantes’ 50% clean sheets, low BTTS in the last 5 (20%) and shot dominance (13.64 vs 9.21) combined with the hosts’ poor finishing form, I select the 'No' scenario as more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on average xG and defensive opponents gives expected xG of 1.57 for Nantes (attacking xG 1.44 vs conceded xG by Brest 1.70) and 1.18 for Brest (attacking xG 1.06 vs conceded xG by Nantes 1.29), totaling 2.75 goals. Nantes averages 13.64 shots with 4.5 on target and a 12% conversion rate at home, while Brest averages 9.21 shots with 2.71 on target and an 11% conversion rate, confirming the home side’s superiority in chance creation. Seasonal percentages show a moderate signal for the over market: Nantes over 2.5 at home 43%, Brest over 2.5 away 57%, and the league average over 2.5 is 51%, which the model translates to roughly a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals. A counterargument is Nantes’ poor form in the last 5 matches (0.4 goals per match on average) and the fact Nantes have 50% clean sheets at home versus just 14% for Brest away, which lowers the probability of a very high scoreline (Over 3.5 around 30%). As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (probability ~76%), since with an expectation of 2.75 goals exceeding 1.5 is the most likely outcome.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Nantes are the favourites: the hosts average 1.64 goals per game versus Brest’s 1.00, have a higher xG (1.44 vs 1.06) and register 13.64 shots on average compared to 9.21 (4.5 vs 2.71 on target), giving them a clear advantage in chance creation. At half-time the statistics are more balanced — Nantes average 0.71 goals by the break and have led in 36% of matches, Brest average 0.57 and have led in 29%, while a half-time draw occurs around 29% seasonally for both teams, so an HT draw is realistic. After the break Nantes are markedly stronger: they score 0.93 and concede 0.36 on average in second halves, collecting 27 points in second halves (1.93 on average), whereas Brest have 0.43 scored and 1.14 conceded and 11 points (0.79 on average), which suggests the hosts make up ground in the second half. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Nantes were level at the break in 5 of 5 (100%), which boosts the probability of an HT draw, but the overall superiority in xG, shots and second-half results leans toward a Nantes win after 90 minutes. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is a half-time draw with a Nantes win in the match (HT/FT X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nantes | Brest | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Brest is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Nantes · 1.2 pts / match - Brest
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Brest is 53% better for: goals scored per match.
0.86 goals / match - Nantes · 1.32 goals / match - Brest
Brest is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.61 goals / match - Nantes · 1.54 goals / match - Brest
Nantes scores in 57% of matches (16 of 28 matches), while Brest keeps a clean sheet in 32% (9 of 28 matches).
Brest scores in 68% of matches (19 of 28 matches), while Nantes keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nantes
Over / Under - Brest
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Brest is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.11 pts / match - Nantes · 1.25 pts / match - Brest
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nantes - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Brest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nantes
Brest
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Nantes | Liga | Brest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.46 | 2.78 | • 2.86 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 49% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 51% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 30% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 70% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 77% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Nantes 0 - 1 - 0 Brest. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nantes vs Brest?
The Ligue 1 match finished Nantes 1:1 Brest. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nantes vs Brest?
Nantes score 0.86 goals per game on average and Brest 1.32. The Ligue 1 average is 2.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Nantes's matches and 43% of Brest's.
What form are Nantes and Brest in?
Over the last 5 games Nantes have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Brest 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nantes vs Brest?
The statistical background for Nantes vs Brest — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.