Nantes vs Rodez: match statistics

Rodez sit 9th, while Nantes are 18th, and over their last five matches the visitors have collected 7 points compared with 4 for the hosts. Rodez have scored 11 goals during this period, clearly more than Nantes’ 7, although they have also conceded as many as 11. Both teams lost their only match played so far at home and away respectively without scoring, which limits Nantes’ home advantage. The visitors create slightly more quality chances away from home, averaging 1.22 xG compared with Nantes’ 1.05 at home, and also record an average of 3 shots on target per match versus 2 for their opponents. Both defences are prone to errors, but Rodez have the more favourable attacking trend and should hold a slight edge in the battle for victory.

Nantes have a clear edge in chance creation: they average 2.61 xG, 21 shots and 10 shots on target per match, making a home goal highly likely. However, the key obstacle to BTTS is Rodez, who are yet to score in their away statistics and failed to find the net in 100% of such matches. Nantes’ defence limits opponents to just 0.63 xG at home, while Rodez produce only 1.22 xG away from home. Their form over the last five matches gives the visitors some support for scoring, as they averaged 2.2 goals and recorded BTTS in 80% of matches, but this is a weaker signal than Rodez’s very low attacking potential in away fixtures. The most likely scenario is therefore that Nantes score, but at least one team finishes without a goal — BTTS - No.

Nantes averaged 1.4 goals scored in their last five matches, while Rodez conceded as many as 2.2, supporting a forecast of at least two goals for the hosts or a significant attacking contribution in the match. Nantes generated xG of 1.49 over this period, whereas Rodez allowed opponents an average of 1.17 xG. However, the visitors are capable of responding, having scored 2.2 goals per game in their last five matches, with both teams finding the net in 80% of their games. The combined projection of 2.70 goals gives the edge to Over 1.5, as even in a more cautious scenario, the data from both teams clearly points to more than one goal. The 2.5 line is more finely balanced, as Nantes had over 2.5 goals in only 40% of their last five matches; therefore, Over 1.5 remains the safest pick.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Nantes win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 100% of their matches and, in their last five games, they have also failed to take a lead into half-time on every occasion. Nantes nevertheless holds a clear statistical advantage for this outcome: they average 3.0 goals, generate an xG of 2.61 and record 10.0 shots on target per match, compared with Rodez’s 0.0 goals, 1.22 xG and 3.0 shots on target. After the break, the hosts score an average of 3.0 goals, while Rodez fail to score, and the visitors have lost the second half in 100% of the available matches. In addition, Nantes average 3.0 points in home matches, whereas Rodez have collected 0.0 points away from home and lost 100% of their matches. Rodez’s form over the last five games is slightly better, with an average of 1.4 points compared with Nantes’s 0.8, which is why a draw at half-time remains more likely than an early lead for the hosts.