Nantong Zhiyun vs Shaanxi Union: match statistics

Nantong Zhiyun are very strong at home, winning 88% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.75 goals, and remaining unbeaten in their last five games overall (2 wins, 3 draws). The hosts concede just 0.63 goals per match at home, keeping a clean sheet in 63% of their appearances, while their average xG against is only 0.90. Shaanxi Union win just 20% of their away matches and lose half of them, conceding an average of 1.30 goals and posting an xG against of 1.53. Although the visitors have a higher shot conversion rate, 15% compared with 13%, they create fewer chances: 1.16 xG and 9.3 shots away from home compared with Nantong’s 1.46 xG and 13.25 shots at home. The hosts’ advantage in game control, averaging 59% possession compared with their opponents’ 53%, combined with their tighter defence, points to Nantong Zhiyun as the most likely winner.

The BTTS signal is strengthened by current form: Nantong Zhiyun have recorded both teams scoring in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Shaanxi Union have done so in 60%. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored, compared with 1.6 for the visitors, with xG of 1.76 and 1.56 respectively. Shaanxi Union conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches, while their season-long xG conceded stands at 1.53, which supports the likelihood of a Nantong goal. The main risk to the pick is the hosts’ very solid defence: they concede just 0.5 goals per match this season and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their fixtures, meaning the edge for the BTTS - Yes scenario is only marginal. Despite Nantong’s lower season BTTS rate of 38% compared with Shaanxi’s 50%, the current attacking data for both teams marginally favours a Goal/Goal outcome.

Nantong Zhiyun create solid conditions for scoring, averaging 1.78 xG and 15.88 shots per match, while Shaanxi Union concede an average of 1.30 goals. However, the hosts are very stable defensively: they have conceded just 0.50 goals per match, kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, and opponents generate only 1.16 xG on average. In their last five appearances, the two teams scored an average of 1.8 and 1.6 goals per match respectively, while Nantong conceded just 0.8 goals during this period. Historically, 87% of Nantong’s matches and 80% of Shaanxi’s games finished with fewer than 3.5 goals, clearly supporting a limited goal total. The projected 2.74 goals points to realistic scorelines of 2:0, 2:1 or 1:1, making Under 3.5 goals the safest selection.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Nantong Zhiyun win at the final whistle, as the hosts have been level at the break in 63% of their matches, rising to 80% across their last five. Nantong concede just 0.13 goals per game before half-time and have kept a clean sheet in the first half in 88% of their appearances, significantly limiting Shaanxi Union’s chances of taking an early lead. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.25 goals, concede only 0.38, and win the second half in 63% of matches. The overall quality advantage also lies with Nantong: they earn 2.13 points per game and have a 63% win rate, while Shaanxi lose 50% of their matches, concede an average of 1.3 goals, and record a lower xG created figure of 1.16 compared with the hosts’ 1.78.