Nantong Zhiyun vs Yanbian Longding: match statistics

Nantong Zhiyun have a 100% home winning record (5/5) and concede only 0.2 goals per match on average with an 80% clean sheet rate, providing them with a clear defensive edge. Yanbian Longding score 1.8 goals per away match with 3.8 shots on target and a high conversion rate of 26%, whereas the hosts average 1.2 goals and 2.8 shots on target at home with a 13% conversion. In xG terms the home side register 1.15 xG at home versus 0.94 xG for the visitors away, so Nantong generate slightly better expected chances, although Yanbian are more clinical in finishing them. Nantong’s last 5 competitive matches show 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (1.0 point per match), while Yanbian average 1.2 points in their last 5 and display an away form of W D L W W (3 wins in 5 away). Considering the perfect home record, the very low average goals conceded (0.2) and 80% clean sheets, I give the advantage to the hosts and tip them to win.

Both teams give clear signals for BTTS - Yes: Nantong has a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while Yanbian shows 40% for the season but 80% BTTS in their last 5 games. xG comparison supports goals from both sides — Nantong posts 1.23 xG versus 1.4 xG conceded by Yanbian, while Yanbian records 0.94 xG against 1.09 xG conceded by Nantong. Chance-creation stats also favor scoring: Nantong averages 10.0 shots (3.6 on target) and Yanbian 6.8 shots (3.8 on target), and the visitors’ high conversion rate of 26% increases Yanbian’s scoring probability. Additionally, both teams have only 40% clean sheets this season (home 40%, away 40%) versus a league average of 62%, with a combined BTTS trend above the league (60%/80% vs 48%), so I rate the "Yes" scenario as more likely (~70%).

The model gives a combined expected total of 2.33 goals — calculated from average xG: Nantong has xG_for 1.23, while Yanbian’s defense concedes xG 1.40 (yielding ~1.32 for the home side); Yanbian has xG_for 0.94 against Nantong’s defense conceding xG 1.09 (yielding ~1.01 for the away side). Season metrics show both teams have 60% of matches with over 1.5 goals (home 60%, away 60%), i.e. historically 60% of their games had at least 2 goals. Offensively Yanbian scores 1.8 goals per game, registers 3.8 shots on target and a very high conversion rate of 26%, while Nantong scores 0.8 goals from 3.6 shots on target with an 8% conversion, which increases the chance of at least two goals in the match. At the same time the Over 2.5 distribution is divergent (home Over 2.5 only 20% vs away 60%) and the expected total 2.33 sits below the 2.5 threshold, so Over 2.5 remains only moderately likely. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (75% probability), with estimates of Over 2.5 ≈ 46% and Over 3.5 ≈ 20%.

A half-time draw appears the most likely outcome: statistics show an HT draw in 60% of cases for both home and away teams (60% vs 60%), so I assigned 60% overall probability to scenarios with a draw at the break. Yanbian Longding holds the advantage at full-time — the away side averages 1.8 goals per match versus 0.8 for the home team and records 2.0 points per match compared to Nantong’s 1.0, with an away win rate of 60% versus 0% for home wins, strongly favoring an away victory. Additionally, the visitors are far more efficient with shots (26% conversion versus 8% for the hosts) and score more often in the second half (1.6 goals on average versus 0.8 for the home side), so the HT draw frequently turns into an away win after the break. For these reasons I select X/2 as the strongest signal (I assigned it 36%), followed by the draw-draw X/X (20%), with home wins considered unlikely.