Napoli vs Udinese: match statistics

Napoli are the favorites to win: they have a 67% home win rate, a home goal difference of +14 and have scored 57 goals this season versus Udinese’s 45. Home advantage is also supported by chance-creation metrics — on average 13.83 shots and 5.17 on target per home match and 58% possession at home, while Udinese average 10.28 shots, 3.83 on target and 44% possession away. Quality of chances is confirmed by xG: Napoli have 1.61 xG at home versus 1.16 xG for Udinese away, while Udinese concede 1.63 xG away compared to 1.12 xG conceded by Napoli at home. The last 5 matches show similar points form (1.4 points on average), but Napoli have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches versus Udinese’s 7, and Udinese have a higher away loss rate (39%) versus Napoli’s home loss rate of 11%, which increases the home edge. Therefore I predict a Napoli win (70%).

Udinese scores an average of 1.50 goals away, while Napoli concedes an average of 1.11 goals at home, implying the visitors statistically have a concrete chance to score (1.50 vs 1.11). Napoli have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches (1.8 per game) with an average xG of 1.52, while Udinese generate an xG of 1.59 in their last 5 and have scored 7 goals (1.4 per game); although the last 5 matches for both teams show a low BTTS rate (20% each), the xG and goal figures point to a higher probability of goals. Season BTTS rates are 37% for Napoli and 56% for Udinese, vs a league average of 45%, so Udinese’s high BTTS share significantly increases the chance of Goal/Goal in the fixture. Additionally, xG comparison shows Napoli’s home attacking xG of 1.40 against Udinese’s away xG conceded of 1.63 (average ~1.52), and Udinese’s away attacking xG of 1.16 against Napoli’s home xG conceded of 1.20 (average ~1.18), yielding expected goals around 1.5 vs 1.2 for the teams. Considering these numbers — 1.50 vs 1.11 goals, recent xG 1.52/1.59 and 37% vs 56% BTTS — I prefer the both teams to score market and estimate BTTS - Yes at 64% vs 36% for BTTS - No.

The model forecasts 1.52 expected goals for Napoli and 1.18 for Udinese (total 2.70), calculated as the average of the home attack xG (1.40) and the xG conceded by the away side (1.63), and analogously for Udinese (xG 1.16 vs Napoli xG against 1.20). For a total of 2.70 goals the Poisson distribution yields roughly a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals and about a 51% probability of Over 2.5 goals. Seasonal numbers confirm a propensity for goals: Udinese have 83% of matches Over 1.5, Napoli 58%, and the BTTS rate is 56% for Udinese and 37% for Napoli. Napoli average 12.84 shots and 3.89 shots on target per match, Udinese 10.28 shots and 3.83 on target; the conversion gap (Napoli 7% vs Udinese 15%) suggests the visitors can be efficient with fewer chances, increasing the likelihood of goals. Accordingly, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (selection: Over at line 1.5), since the 2.70 goals forecast combined with seasonal 58%–83% Over 1.5 rates provides the greatest edge.

I select the 1/1 scenario: Napoli leads at the break and wins the match. In the last five fixtures Napoli scored 9 first-half goals (1.8 average) versus Udinese’s 3 (0.6), while average xG are 1.4 for Napoli and 1.16 for Udinese, indicating a home advantage in chance creation. Napoli averages 12.84 shots per match versus the visitors’ 10.28, concedes only 0.37 goals on average by half-time compared to the opponent’s 0.67, and keeps a clean sheet at Half-Time in 63% of matches (63% vs 50%). At the same time Udinese show higher shot conversion (15% vs 7%) and seasonally score more goals per game (1.5 vs 0.95), which is why I also assign material probability to draw and both-teams-to-score variants. Overall the xG edge (1.4 vs 1.16), higher shot volume (12.84 vs 10.28) and Napoli’s strong first-half form (9 vs 3 goals in the last 5) make 1/1 the strongest HT/FT selection, albeit not without risk from an efficient away side.