Napredak vs Radnički Kragujevac: match statistics

Napredak sits 16th in the table with only 3 wins, 8 draws and 24 losses this season; they have scored 30 and conceded 75, and in the last 5 matches have a record of 1 win and 4 losses, equating to an average of 0.6 points per game. Radnički Kragujevac are 10th with 9 wins, 16 draws and 10 losses, 39 goals for and 40 against, and in their last 5 matches recorded 1 win and 4 draws, i.e. an average of 1.4 points per game. The visitors’ defense is a clear advantage — Napredak concedes an average of 2.18 goals per home match and has 0% clean sheets, while Radnički concedes 1.24 goals away and has 41% clean sheets; in the last 5 games the hosts have conceded 10 goals versus 3 for the visitors. In attack xG indicates a slight edge to Radnički: Napredak’s home average xG is 1.36 versus 1.56 for the visitors away, with average shots 11.12 (home) versus 13.53 (away) and shots on target 3 vs 4.29. Given Napredak’s greater susceptibility to conceding and the visitors’ better defensive numbers and result stability in recent matches, I predict a Radnički win (50%), draw 30%, home win 20%.

Seasonal indicators show a moderate chance for both teams to score: Napredak has BTTS at 50% for the season, Radnički 47%, and the league average is 53%. However, form over the last 5 matches suggests No BTTS — Napredak has only 20% BTTS, scores 0.8 and concedes 2.0 on average, while Radnički has 40% BTTS, scores 1.4 and concedes 0.6. The defensive gap across the season is clear: Napredak has conceded 75 and scored 30, while Radnički has 39 scored and 40 conceded, indicating Napredak creates many chances for opponents but lacks consistent scoring. xG confirms both teams generate opportunities (seasonal xG: Napredak 1.69 vs Radnički 1.56), but in the last 5 matches Napredak’s xG dropped to 1.09 versus Radnički’s 1.41, and Radnički keeps more clean sheets seasonally (41% vs 33%). Therefore the strongest signal is No BTTS with a probability of 62% vs 38% for BTTS - Yes, due to Napredak’s poor finishing in the last 5 and Radnički’s solid defense.

Based on xG: Napredak has xG 1.69, Radnički xG 1.56, and when matched against opponent xG conceded (Radnički concedes 1.42, Napredak 1.34) the projection yields about 1.56 goals for Napredak and 1.45 for Radnički, totaling ~3.01 goals. Shot and conversion metrics confirm this – Napredak averages 13.78 shots with 4.39 on target and a 9% conversion, Radnički 13.53 shots with 4.29 on target and a 7% conversion, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Season rates for Over 1.5 are 72% for Napredak and 59% for Radnički, while BTTS is 50% and 47% respectively, further supporting a both-teams-to-score scenario. Meanwhile Over 2.5 occurs only in 33% of Napredak’s matches and 41% of Radnički’s, and Over 3.5 is rare (28% and 24%), so the highest confidence is around the 1.5 line. Consequently I recommend Over 1.5 as the main pick (estimated 85%), Over 2.5 is a moderate play (58%), and Over 3.5 has lower probability (32%).

The most likely scenario is 1/X (home team leading at half-time, draw at full-time). Napredak led at the break in 50% of their matches this season (9 times) and average 0.72 goals scored by half-time versus 0.33 conceded, which favors a lead at the 45-minute mark. At the same time, full-time often ends in a draw — hosts record draws in 44% of matches and visitors in 47% — and both teams have high BTTS rates (50% for hosts vs. 47% for guests), so losing the lead is a realistic outcome. In the second half hosts concede on average 0.72 goals while guests score 0.41 after the break, with similar xG (1.69 vs 1.56) and a comparable number of on-target shots (4.39 vs 4.29), which increases the visitors’ chances of equalizing.