Nasaf vs Qizilqum: match statistics
Nasaf vs Qizilqum: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nasaf played Qizilqum in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 28 July 2026. Venue: Markaziy Stadion. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Nasaf: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Qizilqum: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nasaf scores 1.23 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Qizilqum scores 0.77 and concedes 1.38. League average: 2.63 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nasaf 62%, Qizilqum 38%. Over 2.5: Nasaf 31%, Qizilqum 38%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Nasaf has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.19. Nasaf: 13.2 shots per match, Qizilqum: 9.8.
Match halves
Nasaf: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.77. Qizilqum: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.38.
Goals by minute
Nasaf: 76-90+ (5 goals). Qizilqum: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.63 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nasaf holds a clear edge, particularly in recent matches and at home: in their last five games they scored 15 goals (3.0 per match) with a record of 3 wins and 2 draws, while Qizilqum scored 7 goals in their last five with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses. Creativity and game control favor the hosts — Nasaf averages 55% possession versus 35% for the visitors, average xG is 1.46 for Nasaf and 1.17 for Qizilqum, and average shots on target are 4 versus 3. The home defense is more stable: they concede 0.83 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of games, whereas Qizilqum concedes 1.0 goals per match away and has 33% clean sheets; in the last 5 matches the visitors conceded 9 goals versus 4 for Nasaf. Additionally, Nasaf earns 2.2 points per match in their last five compared to just 0.8 for Qizilqum, and the away side have 50% of away games without scoring versus 33% for the hosts, which increases the likelihood of a Nasaf win. Based on this I back the home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest current signal for BTTS comes from recent form: both teams have BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches. Nasaf scored 15 goals in those 5 matches (3.0 per game) and conceded 4 (0.8), while Qizilqum scored 7 (1.4) and conceded 9 (1.8). xG also confirms the offensive trend — last 5 matches show xG_for 1.78 for Nasaf and 1.29 for Qizilqum with xG_against of 1.02 and 1.55 respectively, meaning both sides create sufficient chances to score at least once. Seasonal signals are mixed: Nasaf has a season BTTS rate of 57% with an average of 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game, whereas Qizilqum has a season BTTS of only 17% with 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded, which lowers confidence in them turning up offensively. Considering the weight of recent form, xG and a league BTTS level of 56%, the aggregated estimate gives approximately a 60% probability for BTTS (Yes) and 40% for No Goal, so the best selection is 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG and current form, I estimate expected goals of 1.60 for Nasaf and 1.10 for Qizilqum, totaling approximately 2.70 goals. In the last 5 matches Nasaf averaged 3.0 goals (15 goals in 5 matches) with xG 1.78, while Qizilqum averaged 1.4 goals (7 goals) and xG 1.29, which increases the likelihood of more than one goal. Seasonally the Over 1.5 line occurred in 71% of Nasaf’s matches and 67% of Qizilqum’s, and the league average is 2.63 goals per match, supporting an over scenario. Additionally, shots (10.29 vs 9.33), shots on target (2.57 vs 3.00) and conversion (8% vs 7%) indicate a sufficient number of chances, and BTTS occurred in 80% of the last 5 matches for both sides. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 (≈78% probability); Over 2.5 is assessed as moderately likely (~56%), and Over 3.5 as unlikely (~25%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 1/1 (Nasaf leads at the break and wins), because in their last 5 matches Nasaf averaged 3.0 goals per game and 1.6 by half-time, while Qizilqum recorded 1.4 goals per game and only 0.4 by half-time. Nasaf led at the break in 40% of their last five fixtures versus 20% for the visitors, whereas the away side were trailing at the break in 60% of those five matches. In the second half Nasaf averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while Qizilqum averaged 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, which increases the probability of the hosts maintaining their lead. Overall xG is similar (1.21 for Nasaf vs 1.17 for Qizilqum), but the hosts’ superior form (60% wins for Nasaf in the last 5 matches versus 20% for Qizilqum) makes the 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time outcome the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nasaf | Qizilqum | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nasaf is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Nasaf · 1 pts / match - Qizilqum
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nasaf is 60% better for: goals scored per match.
1.23 goals / match - Nasaf · 0.77 goals / match - Qizilqum
Nasaf is 38% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Nasaf · 1.38 goals / match - Qizilqum
Nasaf scores in 85% of matches (11 of 13 matches), while Qizilqum keeps a clean sheet in 23% (3 of 13 matches).
Qizilqum scores in 54% of matches (7 of 13 matches), while Nasaf keeps a clean sheet in 31% (4 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nasaf
Over / Under - Qizilqum
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Qizilqum is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Nasaf · 1.08 pts / match - Qizilqum
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nasaf - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Qizilqum - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nasaf
Qizilqum
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| Nasaf | Liga | Qizilqum | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.23 | 2.63 | ▼ 2.15 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 56% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 31% | 53% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 25% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 54% | 68% | • 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 79% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Nasaf 2 - 0 - 0 Qizilqum. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nasaf vs Qizilqum?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished Nasaf 1:0 Qizilqum. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nasaf and Qizilqum?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Nasaf won 2, Qizilqum won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nasaf vs Qizilqum?
Nasaf score 1.23 goals per game on average and Qizilqum 0.77. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.63 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Nasaf's matches and 38% of Qizilqum's.
What form are Nasaf and Qizilqum in?
Over the last 5 games Nasaf have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Qizilqum 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nasaf vs Qizilqum?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.