Náutico vs Avaí: match statistics

Náutico have a clear home advantage: they have won 47% of their home matches, while Avaí have lost 65% of their away games. At home, the hosts average 18.12 shots and generate 1.98 xG, compared with 9 shots and 0.98 xG for the visitors away from home. The defensive gap is also clear: Náutico concede an average of 1 goal at home, while Avaí concede 1.59 away and allow opponents chances worth 1.89 xG. The hosts’ scoring efficiency is a concern: despite their high xG, they average just 1.12 goals at home and have failed to score in 41% of those matches. Avaí have won 2 of their last 5 matches, compared with 1 win for Náutico, but the away record and the quality of chances created both point in the hosts’ favour.

BTTS occurred in 39% of Náutico’s matches and 53% of Avaí’s, but those rates fell to 40% and 20%, respectively, over the last five rounds. Both teams average 0.94 goals per match this season, while their averages over the last five matches have dropped to just 0.8 and 0.6. Náutico have a good chance of scoring, having created an average of 1.59 xG, while Avaí allow opponents 1.89 xG and concede 1.59 goals per match. The bigger question is whether the visitors will score: their average xG is 0.98, and Náutico have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. Therefore, the slightly more likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score (BTTS - No).

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 94% of Náutico matches and 76% of Avaí matches. In their last 5 games, only 20% of matches for each team ended with at least 3 goals, while their average goals scored were 0.8 and 0.6, respectively. Náutico creates more chances, averaging 1.59 xG compared with Avaí’s 0.98, but scores just 0.94 goals per match—the same as the visitors. Avaí does concede an average of 1.59 goals, but the combined projection of 2.14 goals and the low finishing efficiency of both attacks point to a total of no more than 3 goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Náutico were level after 45 minutes in 50% of their matches, compared with 53% for Avaí, scoring an average of 0.44 and 0.29 goals in the first half, respectively. After the break, the advantage should shift towards the hosts, who average 1.59 xG compared with 0.98 for the visitors, while Avaí concede an average of 1.59 goals per match, against 1.00 for Náutico. In addition, Avaí have failed to score in the second half in each of their last five matches and lost that half in 60% of cases. Recent form tempers confidence in the pick: the visitors led at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while the hosts were trailing at half-time in 40%. Even so, the combination of frequent half-time draws and Náutico’s greater attacking potential points most strongly to a draw at the break and a home win at full-time (X/1).