Náutico vs Operário PR: match statistics

Náutico have clear home advantage: they win 54% of their matches there, concede an average of just 0.69 goals, and keep a clean sheet in 46% of games. The hosts create significantly more, averaging 19.46 shots and an xG of 2.13, while Operário PR record 11.85 shots and an xG of 1.23 away from home. The visitors’ away defence allows an average of 1.77 xG and 1.31 goals per match, while their away record is negative, with a -1 goal difference. Both teams have been difficult to beat recently, but Náutico collected 10 points from their last five league matches, compared with 8 points for Operário PR, despite both scoring 6 goals. The hosts’ advantage in possession, averaging 60% compared with 49%, along with the quality of their chances, points to a narrow Náutico victory.

The scenario in which at least one team fails to score has a slight edge, as Náutico have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, while the league-wide BTTS average stands at just 48%. The recent defensive form of both teams is even stronger: Náutico have conceded an average of 0.8 goals across their last five matches, while Operário PR have conceded just 0.6, with only 4 and 3 goals allowed respectively. Operário PR do have a season BTTS rate of 62%, but this has fallen to 40% over their last five appearances, suggesting more frequent matches in which at least one side fails to get on the scoresheet. Náutico are currently creating chances worth 2.19 xG per match, but the visitors have conceded only 3 goals recently, making it more likely that one defence will keep the opposition scoreless than that both teams will score. This supports the BTTS - No / No Goal market, which means that at least one team does not score—it does not automatically imply a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

Náutico create chances worth 1.64 xG per match at home, while Operário PR allow an average of 1.77 xG away from home, giving the hosts a realistic prospect of around 1.5 goals. However, the visitors have more limited attacking potential: their average goals scored away from home is 1.23, while Náutico concede just 1.14 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches. In their last five games, both teams scored 1.2 goals per match, but their defenses allowed opponents just 0.8 and 0.6 goals respectively, which limits the outlook for a high-scoring game. On a season-long basis, fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 79% of Náutico matches and 85% of Operário PR matches, while Over 3.5 goals occurred in only 21% and 15% of cases. With a combined projected total of 2.50 goals, the strongest edge lies with Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Náutico win, as half-time draws occurred in 57% of the hosts’ matches and 54% of Operário’s. Náutico defend very solidly before the break, conceding an average of just 0.36 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 71% of first halves, which favours an even opening. After the interval, however, the hosts should take control: their average second-half scoring output is 0.79 goals, rising to 1.0 over their last five matches, while conceding just 0.2 goals. Across the full match, Náutico have the higher xG, 1.64 compared with 1.23, and also average 16.14 shots against 11.85 for their opponents, while Operário allow opponents an xG of 1.77. The hosts’ advantage is further supported by a 50% win rate and an average of 1.79 points per match, compared with the visitors’ 38% win rate and 1.38 points per match.