ND Slovan Ljubljana vs Beltinci: match statistics

Beltinci sit 3rd in the table, while ND Slovan Ljubljana are only 16th, and the start of the season further confirms this gap: the visitors won their only match 2:0, whereas the hosts lost 0:3. In their last five matches, Beltinci recorded 3 wins and scored 10 goals, compared with Slovan’s 2 victories and 7 goals. The visitors also have a higher average points tally over their last five matches, 1.8 versus 1.2, while their goal difference during this period stands at +4 compared with the hosts’ -3. Slovan have conceded as many as 10 goals in their five previous appearances, which, combined with Beltinci’s attacking efficiency, increases the visitors’ chances of capitalising on their advantage. A draw remains possible due to the limited number of matches played this season, but the data point more clearly towards a Beltinci victory.

The BTTS signal is mixed: in their last five matches, both teams scored in 60% of Beltinci’s games and 40% of Slovan’s. During this period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Beltinci scored as many as 2.0, clearly increasing the visitors’ chances of finding the net. At the same time, Slovan averaged only 1.4 goals scored, while the Beltinci defence conceded an average of 1.2 goals and had a lower xG against them: 1.31 compared with Slovan’s 1.45. Seasonal data is very limited, but it shows 0% BTTS for both teams, while the league-average BTTS rate is just 25%. Therefore, BTTS - No is slightly more likely, meaning that at least one team is expected to fail to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Slovan’s last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, while Beltinci’s matches averaged as many as 3.2 goals. Slovan scored 1.4 goals per game during this period but conceded 2.0, whereas Beltinci averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The xG data also points to a consistent flow of chances: Beltinci generates 1.62 xG, while Slovan allows opponents 1.45 xG per match. The 2.5 line is more evenly balanced, despite being covered in 60% of the hosts’ last matches and 80% of the visitors’ matches, so the safer edge lies with at least a second goal in the game. Caution is warranted due to the very limited seasonal data, but the current form of both teams clearly supports a minimum of two goals.

Recent form more clearly favors Beltinci: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 goals, while Slovan have suffered 3 defeats and scored only 1.4 goals per match. Beltinci held a lead at the break in 60% of those games, whereas the hosts were trailing at half-time in 40%, with first-half goal differences of +2 for the visitors and -3 for Slovan. After the interval, the visitors still look more stable, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Slovan have managed only 0.8 goals scored and have lost the second half in 60% of cases. It should be noted that the available current-season statistics for the hosts are based on a very small sample of just one match, so greater weight should be given to the consistent form across five appearances. The most likely scenario is therefore that Beltinci take the lead before half-time and maintain it until the final whistle.