ND Slovan Ljubljana vs Ilirija: match statistics

Ilirija sit 2nd and remain unbeaten after 3 league matches, winning 4 of their last 5 games, while Slovan are sixth with a record of 2 wins and 1 defeat. The visitors have already scored 9 goals without conceding any, and won their only away match to nil, averaging 6 goals scored per game. Ilirija’s superiority is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.94 compared with Slovan’s 1.08, while the visitors’ opponents generate just 0.86 xG against the 2.44 xG allowed by the hosts. Ilirija average 15 shots and 7 on target away from home, compared with Slovan’s 7 attempts and 3 on target, while the hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet. Slovan did win their home match and average 3 goals scored there, but the significant difference in possession, 64% to 35%, along with the visitors’ considerably more solid defence, points to an Ilirija victory.

Recent form points to a genuine chance of goals at both ends: Slovan averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Ilirija scored 2.8 and conceded 1.0 goals across their previous five matches. BTTS occurred in 60% of Slovan’s games and 40% of Ilirija’s matches during this period, providing a moderately positive signal for the “Yes” option. Both teams are generating solid xG figures—1.40 and 1.74 respectively over their last five appearances—while their average xG conceded stands at 1.61 and 1.39. Ilirija is particularly dangerous offensively, averaging 7 shots on target and recording a 40% conversion rate, while Slovan’s 17 shots per match should create opportunities at home. The seasonal 0% BTTS rate and clean sheets are based on a very small sample, so greater weight should be placed on current form, which slightly favours goals from both teams.

Ilirija presents very high offensive potential: in the available sample, they average 6.0 goals scored, while their average xG stands at 1.94 with 7 shots on target per match. In their last five fixtures, the visitors scored 2.8 goals per game, while Slovan averaged 2.2 but also conceded 1.6 goals per match. Over 1.5 goals landed in 100% of Ilirija’s matches and 50% of Slovan’s, while in the last five matches of both teams, the 2.5 line was exceeded in 60% and 80% of cases, respectively. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.90 xG, while Ilirija averages 1.94 xG, providing solid grounds to expect at least two goals. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as it combines the attacking form of both teams with significantly greater safety than the more demanding 2.5 and 3.5 lines.

Ilirija are showing better current form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, while Slovan have won 3 of their last 5 and suffered 2 defeats. The visitors held a lead at the break in 60% of their recent matches, compared with 40% for the home side, and averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded before half-time. Ilirija’s advantage is even more pronounced after the interval: they average 1.6 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded, and won the second half in 80% of those matches, whereas Slovan lost the second half in 60%. The visitors have averaged 2.8 goals scored per match and 1.0 conceded across their last five games, making the most likely HT/FT scenario a lead at the break followed by an away win: 2/2.