Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca: match statistics

AEK Larnaca sit 4th, while Nea Salamis are ninth, and the visitors have made the better start to the season, winning their only league match so far 3:1. In their last five fixtures, AEK have recorded 3 wins and scored 10 goals, whereas Nea Salamis have won twice, although they have scored slightly more, with 12 goals. The hosts have nevertheless shown less consistency, drawing 2 and losing 1 of their last five matches, with an average of 1.6 points per game compared to AEK’s 1.8. AEK’s defence has looked stronger in the current campaign, conceding just 1 goal, while Nea Salamis have allowed 3. The differences are not substantial, but the higher league position, a full points tally from the opening match and the more solid defence all point towards an away win.

The signal for both sides to score is based primarily on recent form: Nea Salamis have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, exactly the same as AEK Larnaca. During this period, the hosts averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while the visitors scored 2.0 and allowed opponents 1.6 goals per game. AEK have particularly concerning defensive data in terms of chance quality, as their opponents’ average xG over the last five matches stands at as much as 2.21, compared with 1.03 xG created by the visitors themselves. Nea Salamis have a weaker seasonal attacking xG of 0.88, but they have scored 12 goals in their last five appearances and should therefore be capable of exploiting AEK’s defensive vulnerability. Although the league-wide BTTS average is only 43%, the current figures for both teams provide stronger support for a scenario in which each side scores at least once. This points to BTTS - Yes rather than BTTS - No: BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

Nea Salamis’ last five matches produced an average of 3.8 goals, with the team scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.4. AEK Larnaca’s matches were only slightly tighter, averaging 3.6 goals, with 2.0 scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of the hosts’ last five matches and 60% of the visitors’ games, while the league-wide average is a high 3.14 goals. Particularly significant is that AEK allowed opponents an xG of 2.21 across their last five appearances, supporting a projection of at least 1.55 goals for the hosts. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as the 2.90-goal projection and both teams’ attacking output clearly reduce the risk of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

Nea Salamis have averaged 2.4 goals scored over their last five matches, compared with AEK Larnaca’s 2.0, while scoring 1.6 goals in the first half and conceding just 0.4. The hosts held a lead at the break in 60% of those matches, whereas AEK most frequently went into half-time level, which occurred in 60% of cases. After the interval, however, Nea Salamis do not have complete control, conceding an average of 1.0 goal, while AEK score 1.2, making draw or turnaround scenarios particularly relevant. Although AEK have won 3 of their last 5 matches, their defence has conceded an average of 1.6 goals, compared with 1.4 for the hosts. The strongest single scenario is therefore Nea Salamis leading at half-time and holding on to win, although the advantage is not clear-cut enough to disregard the risk of a late response from the visitors.