NEC vs Fortuna Sittard: match statistics
NEC presents significantly stronger home form with an impressive 64% win rate and an average of 2.73 goals per match at home. The hosts sit in 3rd place and hold a positive goal difference (+13) in home games, whereas Fortuna Sittard suffers from disastrous away form with 67% losses and a negative balance (-10). The visitors have not kept a single clean sheet on the road all season, conceding an average of 2.08 goals per match, which, combined with NEC's offensive power (averaging 4.27 goals in a home match), indicates a high probability of a home victory. The xG statistics also favor NEC (1.8 vs 1.18), and the advantage in possession (55% vs 47%) and shot conversion (17% vs 12%) further confirms the hosts' dominance. Fortuna Sittard has secured just 17% of possible points away, making them one of the weakest visiting teams in the league.
NEC vs Fortuna Sittard: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
NEC played Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
NEC: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Fortuna Sittard: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
NEC scores 2.46 and concedes 1.67 goals per match. Fortuna Sittard scores 1.50 and concedes 1.79. League average: 3.21 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: NEC 83%, Fortuna Sittard 75%. Over 2.5: NEC 79%, Fortuna Sittard 67%. League level: BTTS 65%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
NEC has higher xG: 1.86 vs 1.38. NEC: 15.9 shots per match, Fortuna Sittard: 12.8.
Match halves
NEC: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.58. Fortuna Sittard: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
NEC: 76-90+ (14 goals). Fortuna Sittard: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.21 goals per match, BTTS 65%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
NEC presents significantly stronger home form with an impressive 64% win rate and an average of 2.73 goals per match at home. The hosts sit in 3rd place and hold a positive goal difference (+13) in home games, whereas Fortuna Sittard suffers from disastrous away form with 67% losses and a negative balance (-10). The visitors have not kept a single clean sheet on the road all season, conceding an average of 2.08 goals per match, which, combined with NEC's offensive power (averaging 4.27 goals in a home match), indicates a high probability of a home victory. The xG statistics also favor NEC (1.8 vs 1.18), and the advantage in possession (55% vs 47%) and shot conversion (17% vs 12%) further confirms the hosts' dominance. Fortuna Sittard has secured just 17% of possible points away, making them one of the weakest visiting teams in the league.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| NEC | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
NEC is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - NEC · 1.4 pts / match - Fortuna Sittard
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
NEC is 64% better for: goals scored per match.
2.46 goals / match - NEC · 1.5 goals / match - Fortuna Sittard
NEC is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.67 goals / match - NEC · 1.79 goals / match - Fortuna Sittard
NEC scores in 96% of matches (23 of 24 matches), while Fortuna Sittard keeps a clean sheet in 13% (3 of 24 matches).
Fortuna Sittard scores in 88% of matches (21 of 24 matches), while NEC keeps a clean sheet in 13% (3 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - NEC
Over / Under - Fortuna Sittard
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
NEC is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - NEC · 1.17 pts / match - Fortuna Sittard
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
NEC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Fortuna Sittard - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
NEC
Fortuna Sittard
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| NEC | Liga | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.13 | 3.21 | • 3.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 83% | 65% | ▲ 75% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 79% | 63% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 18% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 92% | 82% | ▲ 96% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 96% | 85% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: NEC 0 - 0 - 1 Fortuna Sittard. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
The Eredivisie match finished NEC 2:3 Fortuna Sittard. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
NEC score 2.46 goals per game on average and Fortuna Sittard 1.50. The Eredivisie average is 3.21 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 83% of NEC's matches and 75% of Fortuna Sittard's.
What form are NEC and Fortuna Sittard in?
Over the last 5 games NEC have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Fortuna Sittard 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.