NEC vs Lugazi Municipal: match statistics
NEC presents decidedly better home form with 75% of matches ending in a draw and only one defeat at their own stadium. The hosts hold a positive goal difference (+1) in home fixtures, while Lugazi Municipal has a catastrophic away record (-10) and remains winless on the road this season. The visitors concede an average of 2.2 goals per away match and fail to score in 80% of games, highlighting immense offensive struggles with an average of just 0.2 goals per away match. NEC holds the advantage in possession (53% vs 46%), better shot efficiency, and a higher xG (1.63 vs 1.32). Recent form over the last five matches also favors the hosts, who earned 6 points compared to just 2 for the visitors. All statistical indicators point to a clear advantage for NEC, making a home victory the most probable scenario.
NEC vs Lugazi Municipal: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
NEC played Lugazi Municipal in Uganda Premier League (Uganda). The match was played on 7 January 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
NEC: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Lugazi Municipal: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
NEC scores 0.91 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Lugazi Municipal scores 1.00 and concedes 1.55. League average: 2.36 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: NEC 64%, Lugazi Municipal 45%. Over 2.5: NEC 27%, Lugazi Municipal 55%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Lugazi Municipal has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.45. NEC: 8.6 shots per match, Lugazi Municipal: 9.9.
Match halves
NEC: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.55. Lugazi Municipal: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.45.
Goals by minute
NEC: 0-15 (2 goals). Lugazi Municipal: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uganda Premier League: 2.36 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
NEC presents decidedly better home form with 75% of matches ending in a draw and only one defeat at their own stadium. The hosts hold a positive goal difference (+1) in home fixtures, while Lugazi Municipal has a catastrophic away record (-10) and remains winless on the road this season. The visitors concede an average of 2.2 goals per away match and fail to score in 80% of games, highlighting immense offensive struggles with an average of just 0.2 goals per away match. NEC holds the advantage in possession (53% vs 46%), better shot efficiency, and a higher xG (1.63 vs 1.32). Recent form over the last five matches also favors the hosts, who earned 6 points compared to just 2 for the visitors. All statistical indicators point to a clear advantage for NEC, making a home victory the most probable scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| NEC | Lugazi Municipal | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 24% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
NEC is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - NEC · 0.4 pts / match - Lugazi Municipal
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lugazi Municipal is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
0.91 goals / match - NEC · 1 goals / match - Lugazi Municipal
NEC is 55% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - NEC · 1.55 goals / match - Lugazi Municipal
NEC scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while Lugazi Municipal keeps a clean sheet in 27% (3 of 11 matches).
Lugazi Municipal scores in 45% of matches (5 of 11 matches), while NEC keeps a clean sheet in 27% (3 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - NEC
Over / Under - Lugazi Municipal
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
NEC is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.45 pts / match - NEC · 1.18 pts / match - Lugazi Municipal
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
NEC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Lugazi Municipal - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
NEC
Lugazi Municipal
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uganda Premier League).
Teams vs league
| NEC | Liga | Lugazi Municipal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.91 | 2.36 | ▲ 2.55 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 47% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 27% | 42% | ▲ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 27% | 32% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 45% | 62% | ▲ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 73% | 62% | ▲ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of NEC vs Lugazi Municipal?
The Uganda Premier League match finished NEC 1:0 Lugazi Municipal. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before NEC vs Lugazi Municipal?
NEC score 0.91 goals per game on average and Lugazi Municipal 1.00. The Uganda Premier League average is 2.36 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 64% of NEC's matches and 45% of Lugazi Municipal's.
What form are NEC and Lugazi Municipal in?
Over the last 5 games NEC have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Lugazi Municipal 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for NEC vs Lugazi Municipal?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.