Necaxa vs Mazatlán: match statistics

I pick 1 (home win): Necaxa score on average 1.29 goals per home match and have xG 1.64, while Mazatlán score only 0.71 goals away and have xG 1.06. Defensively the hosts also perform better — Necaxa concede 1.07 goals at home, while Mazatlán concede 1.71 away; the visitors have 71% losses and only 7% wins on the road. Necaxa create more chances: on average 16.43 shots and 4.79 on target per home match versus 9.36 shots and 3.29 on target for Mazatlán away, which increases the hosts’ scoring opportunities. Still, Mazatlán have better recent form (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses and 7 goals in 5 matches) than Necaxa (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses and 5 goals), so the visitors can be dangerous on the counter. Considering the xG advantage (1.64 vs 1.06), higher shooting metrics and lower goals conceded rate for Necaxa, I assess the probability of a home win at about 60%, draw 25% and a Mazatlán win 15%.

Necaxa has a season BTTS rate of 93% with only 7% clean sheets, while Mazatlán has a 50% BTTS and also 7% clean sheets, indicating home matches rarely finish with one side failing to score. In the last 5 fixtures Necaxa scored 5 and conceded 5 (avg 1.0 and 1.0) with 40% BTTS, while Mazatlán scored 7 and conceded 9 (avg 1.4 and 1.8) with 60% BTTS, meaning the visitors have recently been involved more often in Goal/Goal matches. xG highlights defensive vulnerabilities: average xG against in the last 5 matches is 1.87 for Necaxa and 2.38 for Mazatlán, and seasonally both teams concede on average 1.87 and 1.71 goals per game respectively, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Hosts register on average 3.73 shots on target with a 15% conversion versus 3.29 SoT and 8% conversion for the visitors, and the league posts a BTTS of 57% and average goals 2.92, so at least one goal from each side is realistic. Based on this I assign the Both Teams To Score scenario a 78% probability versus 22% for No Goal and recommend the 'BTTS - Yes' selection.

xG and season stats yield a combined ~2.96 expected goals: Necaxa’s attacking xG is 1.20 and xG against Mazatlán is 1.79, translating to ~1.50 for the home side; Mazatlán’s attacking xG 1.06 and xG against Necaxa 1.86 give ~1.46 for the away side. A Poisson model with mean = 2.96 implies ~80% probability for Over 1.5 (≈20% Under), ~57% for Over 2.5 (43% Under) and ~34% for Over 3.5 (66% Under). Season statistics support these conclusions: Necaxa at home have 93% of matches Over 1.5 and 73% Over 2.5, while Mazatlán away have 64% Over 1.5 and 43% Over 2.5, favoring lines above 1.5–2.5. Additionally, Necaxa score on average 1.6 goals at home with a 15% conversion rate and have BTTS 93% at home, whereas Mazatlán score 0.71 away with an 8% conversion, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

Necaxa holds a statistical edge: the home side scores on average 1.6 goals per match versus Mazatlán’s 0.71 and records a 27% win rate this season compared to the visitors’ 7%. Necaxa led at the break in 6 matches (40%), while Mazatlán never led at half-time (0%); hosts average 0.8 goals by half-time versus the opponents’ 0.14, strongly favoring a lead at the break for the home team. Offensively Necaxa attempts more shots (10.47 vs 9.36), registers more shots on target on average (3.73 vs 3.29), and posts a much better conversion rate (15% vs 8%); xG of 1.2 versus 1.06 further confirms their superiority in creating chances. The hosts also accumulate more points by half-time (21 vs 5, i.e., 1.4 points on average at the break vs 0.36 for Mazatlán), so first-half advantage often translates into a favorable full-time result, despite both teams having relatively high xG against (1.86 and 1.79). Based on this, the most likely scenario is Necaxa leading at half-time and winning full-time; therefore I tip HT/FT 1/1.