Necaxa vs Toluca: match statistics
Toluca is displaying significantly superior form and statistics this season. The visitors have notched 17 wins with only 4 defeats, whereas Necaxa has just 7 victories and as many as 11 losses. In away fixtures, Toluca boasts a 50% win rate and an identical clean sheet percentage, underscoring a robust defense (averaging 0.64 goals conceded per match). Recent form over the last 5 games also favors the away side – Toluca averages 1.8 points per game with a WDDDW sequence, compared to Necaxa's mere 1.2 points and an LLLWW run. Toluca's positive goal difference (+10 on the road) versus Necaxa's (+4 at home), coupled with a higher xG figure, solidifies the visitors' edge. Necaxa's difficulties in maintaining clean sheets (only 9% CS%) could prove decisive against Toluca's efficiency.
Necaxa vs Toluca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Necaxa played Toluca in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 22 February 2026. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
Necaxa: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Toluca: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Necaxa scores 1.43 and concedes 1.74 goals per match. Toluca scores 1.93 and concedes 0.90. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Necaxa 65%, Toluca 52%. Over 2.5: Necaxa 52%, Toluca 52%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.80 vs 1.58. Necaxa: 15.3 shots per match, Toluca: 17.3.
Match halves
Necaxa: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.78. Toluca: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Necaxa: 0-15 (6 goals). Toluca: 46-60 (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca is displaying significantly superior form and statistics this season. The visitors have notched 17 wins with only 4 defeats, whereas Necaxa has just 7 victories and as many as 11 losses. In away fixtures, Toluca boasts a 50% win rate and an identical clean sheet percentage, underscoring a robust defense (averaging 0.64 goals conceded per match). Recent form over the last 5 games also favors the away side – Toluca averages 1.8 points per game with a WDDDW sequence, compared to Necaxa's mere 1.2 points and an LLLWW run. Toluca's positive goal difference (+10 on the road) versus Necaxa's (+4 at home), coupled with a higher xG figure, solidifies the visitors' edge. Necaxa's difficulties in maintaining clean sheets (only 9% CS%) could prove decisive against Toluca's efficiency.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Necaxa | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toluca is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Necaxa · 1.8 pts / match - Toluca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 35% better for: goals scored per match.
1.43 goals / match - Necaxa · 1.93 goals / match - Toluca
Toluca is 93% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.74 goals / match - Necaxa · 0.9 goals / match - Toluca
Necaxa scores in 70% of matches (16 of 23 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 38% (11 of 29 matches).
Toluca scores in 72% of matches (21 of 29 matches), while Necaxa keeps a clean sheet in 4% (1 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Necaxa
Over / Under - Toluca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 94% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.87 pts / match - Necaxa · 1.69 pts / match - Toluca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Necaxa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 59%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Necaxa
Toluca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Necaxa | Liga | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.17 | 2.94 | ▼ 2.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 57% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 52% | 55% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 4% | 25% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 87% | 73% | • 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 70% | 77% | • 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Necaxa 0 - 0 - 1 Toluca. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Necaxa vs Toluca?
The Liga MX match finished Necaxa 0:3 Toluca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Necaxa vs Toluca?
Necaxa score 1.43 goals per game on average and Toluca 1.93. The Liga MX average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Necaxa's matches and 52% of Toluca's.
What form are Necaxa and Toluca in?
Over the last 5 games Necaxa have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Toluca 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Necaxa vs Toluca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Necaxa vs Toluca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.