Neftçi vs Mil Mugan FK: match statistics
Neftçi are in significantly better form, having earned 10 points in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Mil Mugan FK have only 3 points (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) and have failed to score any goals in that period. The hosts dominate offensive statistics with an average of 1.18 goals per home match and a high xG of 1.81, which, combined with 60% possession, gives them a clear advantage. Mil Mugan FK have poor away efficiency (58% of matches without scoring) and a low xG of 0.92, confirming their struggles in creating goal-scoring opportunities. Neftçi's high percentage of home draws (55%) and the visitors' solid defense (50% clean sheets away) suggest the match could be tight, but the hosts' qualitative superiority and form point towards their victory. The goal difference and overall disposition of both teams indicate a moderate, yet realistic victory for Neftçi.
Neftçi vs Mil Mugan FK: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Neftçi played Mil Mugan FK in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match was played on 20 March 2026. Final score: 6:0.
Current form
Neftçi: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Mil Mugan FK: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Neftçi scores 1.43 and concedes 0.96 goals per match. Mil Mugan FK scores 0.75 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.50 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Neftçi 43%, Mil Mugan FK 25%. Over 2.5: Neftçi 43%, Mil Mugan FK 33%. League level: BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Neftçi has higher xG: 1.70 vs 0.89. Neftçi: 13.1 shots per match, Mil Mugan FK: 7.2.
Match halves
Neftçi: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.87. Mil Mugan FK: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Neftçi: 76-90+ (11 goals). Mil Mugan FK: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.50 goals per match, BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Neftçi are in significantly better form, having earned 10 points in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Mil Mugan FK have only 3 points (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) and have failed to score any goals in that period. The hosts dominate offensive statistics with an average of 1.18 goals per home match and a high xG of 1.81, which, combined with 60% possession, gives them a clear advantage. Mil Mugan FK have poor away efficiency (58% of matches without scoring) and a low xG of 0.92, confirming their struggles in creating goal-scoring opportunities. Neftçi's high percentage of home draws (55%) and the visitors' solid defense (50% clean sheets away) suggest the match could be tight, but the hosts' qualitative superiority and form point towards their victory. The goal difference and overall disposition of both teams indicate a moderate, yet realistic victory for Neftçi.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Neftçi | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Neftçi is 233% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Neftçi · 0.6 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Neftçi is 91% better for: goals scored per match.
1.43 goals / match - Neftçi · 0.75 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK
Neftçi is 22% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.96 goals / match - Neftçi · 1.17 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK
Neftçi scores in 61% of matches (14 of 23 matches), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 42% (10 of 24 matches).
Mil Mugan FK scores in 42% of matches (10 of 24 matches), while Neftçi keeps a clean sheet in 39% (9 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Neftçi
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Neftçi is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - Neftçi · 1.04 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Neftçi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Neftçi
Mil Mugan FK
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Neftçi | Liga | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.39 | 2.50 | ▼ 1.92 |
| Both teams scored | • 43% | 44% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 46% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 33% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 52% | 65% | ▼ 42% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 61% | 72% | • 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Neftçi 0 - 1 - 1 Mil Mugan FK. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Neftçi vs Mil Mugan FK?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Neftçi 6:0 Mil Mugan FK. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Neftçi and Mil Mugan FK?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Neftçi won 0, Mil Mugan FK won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Neftçi vs Mil Mugan FK?
Neftçi score 1.43 goals per game on average and Mil Mugan FK 0.75. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Neftçi's matches and 25% of Mil Mugan FK's.
What form are Neftçi and Mil Mugan FK in?
Over the last 5 games Neftçi have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Mil Mugan FK 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Neftçi vs Mil Mugan FK?
The statistical background for Neftçi vs Mil Mugan FK — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.