Neftçi vs Qarabağ: match statistics
Neftçi vs Qarabağ: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Neftçi played Qarabağ in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match was played on 30 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Neftçi: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Qarabağ: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Neftçi scores 1.64 and concedes 1.07 goals per match. Qarabağ scores 2.14 and concedes 0.71. League average: 2.56 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Neftçi 50%, Qarabağ 39%. Over 2.5: Neftçi 50%, Qarabağ 43%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Qarabağ has higher xG: 2.06 vs 1.68. Neftçi: 13.0 shots per match, Qarabağ: 16.3.
Match halves
Neftçi: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.96. Qarabağ: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.21.
Goals by minute
Neftçi: 76-90+ (12 goals). Qarabağ: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.56 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Qarabağ are the favorites in this fixture: they sit 2nd in the table versus Neftçi in 5th and have 18 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 11, clearly indicating superiority in results. In attack the visitors have scored 60 goals this season versus Neftçi’s 46 and average 2.15 goals per away match against the hosts’ 1.57 at home, while the visitors’ shot conversion rate is 14% versus 11% for their opponents. Defensively Qarabağ also perform better — they have conceded 20 goals this season versus 30 for Neftçi and average 0.85 goals conceded per away match compared to the hosts’ 1.21; in the last 5 matches the visitors have conceded only 4 goals while the hosts have conceded 8. Although Neftçi have the better recent form over the last 5 (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss and 2.00 pts per game) than Qarabağ (2-1-2 and 1.4 pts), the visitors’ advantage in xG (1.98 vs 1.8), possession (64% vs 57%) and a lower percentage of matches without scoring (15% vs 36%) argue in favor of a Qarabağ win.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Neftçi | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Neftçi is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Neftçi · 1.4 pts / match - Qarabağ
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Qarabağ is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.64 goals / match - Neftçi · 2.14 goals / match - Qarabağ
Qarabağ is 51% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.07 goals / match - Neftçi · 0.71 goals / match - Qarabağ
Neftçi scores in 68% of matches (19 of 28 matches), while Qarabağ keeps a clean sheet in 46% (13 of 28 matches).
Qarabağ scores in 79% of matches (22 of 28 matches), while Neftçi keeps a clean sheet in 36% (10 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Neftçi
Over / Under - Qarabağ
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Qarabağ is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Neftçi · 1.64 pts / match - Qarabağ
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Neftçi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Qarabağ - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +14 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Neftçi
Qarabağ
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Neftçi | Liga | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.71 | 2.56 | ▲ 2.86 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 45% | ▼ 39% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 46% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 32% | ▲ 46% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 65% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 73% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Neftçi 0 - 0 - 2 Qarabağ. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Neftçi vs Qarabağ?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Neftçi 2:1 Qarabağ. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Neftçi and Qarabağ?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Neftçi won 0, Qarabağ won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Neftçi vs Qarabağ?
Neftçi score 1.64 goals per game on average and Qarabağ 2.14. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Neftçi's matches and 39% of Qarabağ's.
What form are Neftçi and Qarabağ in?
Over the last 5 games Neftçi have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Qarabağ 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Neftçi vs Qarabağ?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.