Bulgaria - Second LeagueGradski stadionData current as of 18 September 2026

Nesebar vs Beroe: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

Nesebar vs Beroe: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Nesebar play Beroe in Second League (Bulgaria). The match date is 20 September 2026. Venue: Gradski stadion.

Current form

Nesebar: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Beroe: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.

Goal statistics

Nesebar scores 1.78 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Beroe scores 1.33 and concedes 0.89. League average: 2.63 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Nesebar 56%, Beroe 33%. Over 2.5: Nesebar 44%, Beroe 44%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 46%.

xG, shots and style

Nesebar has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.34. Nesebar: 10.1 shots per match, Beroe: 10.0.

Match halves

Nesebar: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.00. Beroe: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.67.

Goals by minute

Nesebar: 0-15 (4 goals). Beroe: 16-30 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Second League: 2.63 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 46%.

Head-to-head

No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(-)
(-)
(-)

Pre-match profilewhat do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

1.78Goals scored / match1.33
NesebarBeroe
1.33Goals conceded / match0.89
NesebarBeroe
35%Average possession49%
NesebarBeroe
4.67Shots on target / match3.78
NesebarBeroe

Team statswho is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

10.11Shots per match10
NesebarBeroe
4.67Shots on target3.78
NesebarBeroe
17.6%Shot conversion13.3%
NesebarBeroe
35%Possession49%
NesebarBeroe
1.65xG for1.34
NesebarBeroe
1.33xG against1.25
NesebarBeroe

Shooting quality

Nesebar: Counter-attackingBeroe: Efficient finishing
NesebarBeroe
Accuracy (shots on target)46%38%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.160.13
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.380.35

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team formwho is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Beroe is 13% better for: last-5 form.

1.6 pts / match - Nesebar · 1.8 pts / match - Beroe

Nesebar
WDLWD
Season result split
44% W22% D33% L
Season (W-D-L)
4-2-3
1.56 pts / match · goal difference +4
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-2-1
1.60 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Last 5 at home
3-1-1
LWWDW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 2.2Goals conceded: 0.8xG: 1.69Opponent xG: 0.92BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 40%
Beroe
WDDDW
Unbeaten in the last 5 matches
Season result split
44% W33% D22% L
Season (W-D-L)
4-3-2
1.67 pts / match · goal difference +4
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-3-0
1.80 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Last 5 away
0-2-2
LLDD
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 0.8xG: 1.48Opponent xG: 1.28BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 60%

Goalshow do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Nesebar is 34% better for: goals scored per match.

1.78 goals / match - Nesebar · 1.33 goals / match - Beroe

Beroe is 49% better for: goals conceded per match.

1.33 goals / match - Nesebar · 0.89 goals / match - Beroe

Nesebar scoring profile: very strong

Nesebar scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Beroe keeps a clean sheet in 44% (4 of 9 matches).

Beroe scoring profile: strong

Beroe scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Nesebar keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).

16Goals scored (season)12
NesebarBeroe
12Goals conceded (season)8
NesebarBeroe
3.11Average goals in match2.22
NesebarBeroe
11Goals scored (last 5)8
NesebarBeroe
4Goals conceded (last 5)4
NesebarBeroe

How often they score at least...

89%1 goal67%
NesebarBeroe
33%2 goals56%
NesebarBeroe
11%3 goals11%
NesebarBeroe
11%4 goals0%
NesebarBeroe

How often they concede at least...

67%1 goal56%
NesebarBeroe
22%2 goals33%
NesebarBeroe
22%3 goals0%
NesebarBeroe
11%4 goals0%
NesebarBeroe

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

Goal patterns

22%BTTS at half-time11%
NesebarBeroe
0%BTTS in both halves0%
NesebarBeroe
11%Scored in both halves22%
NesebarBeroe

BTTS and goal count

33%Min. 3 goals and BTTS33%
NesebarBeroe
11%Min. 3 goals without BTTS11%
NesebarBeroe
60%BTTS - last 540%
NesebarBeroe

Goal count (Over/Under)how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

78%Min. 1 goal before half-time56%
NesebarBeroe
44%Min. 2 goals before half-time22%
NesebarBeroe
11%Min. 3 goals before half-time11%
NesebarBeroe

2nd half

78%Min. 1 goal after half-time67%
NesebarBeroe
56%Min. 2 goals after half-time44%
NesebarBeroe
11%Min. 3 goals after half-time11%
NesebarBeroe

Match halveswhen do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Beroe is 34% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.33 pts / match - Nesebar · 1.78 pts / match - Beroe

Nesebar - half-time state
33% leading33% draw33% trailing
Beroe - half-time state
44% leading44% draw11% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.33Points per match (1st half)1.78
NesebarBeroe
0.78Goals scored (1st half)0.67
NesebarBeroe
0.67Goals conceded (1st half)0.22
NesebarBeroe
1.44Average goals (1st half)0.89
NesebarBeroe
56%Clean sheet before half-time78%
NesebarBeroe
44%No goal before half-time56%
NesebarBeroe

After half-time (2nd half)

1.33Points per match (2nd half)1.22
NesebarBeroe
1Goals scored (2nd half)0.67
NesebarBeroe
0.67Goals conceded (2nd half)0.67
NesebarBeroe
1.67Average goals (2nd half)1.33
NesebarBeroe
56%Clean sheet after half-time56%
NesebarBeroe
56%No goal after half-time56%
NesebarBeroe

Nesebar - second-half results

33% W33% D33% L
12
Half-time points
7
Half-time goals
+1
Goal difference (1st half)
12
Second-half points
+3
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.33
PPG before half-time
Lead holding133%

Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time0.0

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Beroe - second-half results

22% W56% D22% L
16
Half-time points
6
Half-time goals
+4
Goal difference (1st half)
11
Second-half points
0
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.78
PPG before half-time
Lead holding100%

Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.5

Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Nesebar - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.401.60
Goals scored / match0.61.6
Goals conceded / match0.40.4
Average goals in match1.02.0
1 goal80%80%
2 goals20%60%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet60%60%
No goal60%40%
Goal difference+1+6
Half-time: 40% leading - 20% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 3
Beroe - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match2.201.20
Goals scored / match1.00.6
Goals conceded / match0.20.6
Average goals in match1.21.2
1 goal60%60%
2 goals40%20%
3 goals20%20%
Clean sheet80%60%
No goal40%60%
Goal difference+40
Half-time: 60% leading - 40% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 60% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 5

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minutewhen do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Nesebar
ScoredConceded
4
2
0-15
2
0
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.

Beroe
ScoredConceded
1
2
0-15
3
0
16-30
2
0
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicatorswhat do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.67
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.3 : 1.3
Estimated goal split
home : away
101%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
45%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-100%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
60%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
4%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 25 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

Nesebar

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.32
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.13
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-3.3 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.13
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
0.00
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
110%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
132%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.04
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.2
Late goals
19% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 25% come in the first quarter-hour.
19%

Beroe

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.09
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.35
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-3.7 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.01
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.36
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
132%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
55%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.13
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
0.0
Late goals
17% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 8% come in the first quarter-hour.
17%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League contextis this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Second League).

Teams vs league

NesebarLigaBeroe
Average goals in match 3.112.63 2.22
Both teams scored 56%46% 33%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) 44%46% 44%
Clean sheets 33%30% 44%
Goal before half-time 78%64% 56%
Goal after half-time 78%77% 67%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.63
Average goals per match
46%
Both teams scored
46%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
30%
Clean sheets
1.62
Home goals / match
1.01
Away goals / match
+60%
Home attack advantage
+38%
Home defence advantage
+32%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
64%
1 goal
32%
2 goals
9%
3 goals
2%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
77%
1 goal
51%
2 goals
19%
3 goals
7%
4 goals

FAQ

When do Nesebar and Beroe play?

Nesebar face Beroe on 20 September 2026 in Second League at Gradski stadion. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What do the goal statistics show before Nesebar vs Beroe?

Nesebar score 1.78 goals per game on average and Beroe 1.33. The Second League average is 2.63 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Nesebar's matches and 33% of Beroe's.

What form are Nesebar and Beroe in?

Over the last 5 games Nesebar have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Beroe 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nesebar vs Beroe?

The statistical background for Nesebar vs Beroe — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.