Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II: match statistics

Nesebar have a clear home advantage: they have won 67% of their home matches and score an average of 2.83 goals per game there, while CSKA Sofia II average 1.33 goals away from home. The hosts also create more chances, with a home xG of 1.95 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.30. However, CSKA Sofia II are in better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 3, while Nesebar recorded 2 wins and a goal difference of 8:8 over the same period. The visitors also have the defensive edge, conceding an average of 0.67 goals away from home, compared with 1.67 goals conceded by Nesebar at home. Despite CSKA Sofia II’s strong run, the hosts’ finishing and chance quality on home soil give Nesebar a slight edge in this prediction.

BTTS - Yes is slightly more likely: Nesebar average 3.0 goals at home, while CSKA Sofia II average 1.33 goals away. The hosts have not failed to score in any home match, and their xG stands at 1.74 compared with the 1.47 xG conceded by the visitors. Meanwhile, the visitors have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches, while Nesebar have conceded 8 over the same period. Confidence in the pick is tempered by CSKA Sofia II’s solid defence, having conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 matches, and by the fact that BTTS has landed in 33% of their away matches, compared with 60% of Nesebar’s home matches.

Nesebar average 3.0 goals scored at home and 7.2 shots on target per match, although their xG of 1.74 calls for caution when assessing such a high conversion rate. CSKA Sofia II average 1.33 goals away from home and scored 2.6 goals per match across their last five games, increasing the likelihood of the visitors contributing to the scoreline. Over 1.5 goals landed in 80% of Nesebar’s home matches, but in only 50% of CSKA Sofia II’s away fixtures, so the assessment takes both profiles into account. The visitors concede just 0.67 goals per match away from home, meaning the projected total of 2.72 goals does not provide an equally strong signal for higher lines. The best pick is Over 1.5 goals: just two goals are needed, and the estimated probability is 77%.

The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Nesebar win: the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their matches, compared with 50% for CSKA Sofia II. A cautious start is supported by averages of 0.6 goals scored by Nesebar and 0.5 by the visitors before half-time, while CSKA conceded just 0.17 goals in that period. The hosts’ advantage is more pronounced after the break: they average 2.4 goals in second halves and win that half in 80% of matches, while the visitors average 0.83 goals and win the second half in 17%. Nesebar have won 80% of their home matches, but the last five head-to-head meetings warrant caution: CSKA won four, while the hosts won two. Therefore, X/1 has the highest individual probability, although the visitors’ strong form leaves a significant chance of an X/2 outcome.