Nesebar vs OFK Pirin: match statistics

Nesebar have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 13 goals in that span, while OFK Pirin have lost all 5 of their last games, scoring just 3 goals. The hosts create significantly more danger at home, averaging 15 shots, including 5.5 on target, compared with Pirin’s 9.5 shots and 3.5 on target away from home. The visitors’ defence looks particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 3 goals per away match and failing to keep a clean sheet, while Nesebar score 1.5 goals per game in front of their home crowd. The hosts’ advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances created, with an xG of 1.71 compared with Pirin’s 1.11; additionally, Pirin fail to score in 50% of their away matches. Nesebar are not flawless defensively, conceding an average of 2.5 goals at home, but the visitors’ disastrous run and failure to collect any points strongly favour a home win.

The scenario in which both teams score has a slight edge, as Nesebar have averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last 5 matches. OFK Pirin have managed only 0.6 goals per game in their five most recent appearances, but Nesebar have not kept a clean sheet at any point this season and allow opponents an average xG of 1.36. The visitors also have not recorded a single clean sheet, while the hosts are in significantly better attacking form, with an xG of 1.62 and 13 goals in their last 5 games. The season-long BTTS rate stands at 50% for both teams, while their recent run gives Nesebar 60% and Pirin 40%, making this a pick with a moderate rather than decisive edge. The biggest risk to BTTS - Yes is Pirin's poor finishing, but their average xG of 1.07 and 3.5 shots on target per game provide a realistic basis for scoring at least once.

Nesebar averaged 2.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while OFK Pirin conceded as many as 3.0 goals per game during the same period. The hosts recorded an average xG of 1.62 in this run, whereas the visitors’ defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.54, strongly supporting at least two goals in the match. In the teams’ last five appearances, the 2.5-goal line was covered in 60% and 80% of cases, respectively, and neither side kept a clean sheet in the current season. However, Pirin scored just 0.6 goals per game in their recent run, making Over 1.5 a safer choice than higher lines.

Nesebar have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals, while OFK Pirin have lost all 5 games, scoring just 0.6 goals per match. The home side’s advantage should already be evident before the break: over their last five matches, they scored an average of 1.6 goals in the first half, compared with just 0.2 for the visitors; Nesebar were leading at half-time in 40% of those games, while Pirin did so on none of those occasions. Pirin’s defence is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per match, including 1.2 before the break, alongside a negative first-half goal difference of 5 goals. After the interval, the hosts still have the more favourable figures, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding 0.8, whereas Pirin concede 1.8 goals. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT scenario is Nesebar leading at the break and securing the final win (1/1).