Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Marko: match statistics

Marko have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals in that period, while Nestos Chrisoupolis have recorded 1 win and scored 3 goals. The hosts conceded 8 goals across those five matches, strengthening the case for the visitors, who have been more clinical of late. Nestos do, however, have home advantage: they earned 4 points from two such matches and conceded an average of just 0.5 goals. Their average xG at home is only 0.65, though, and they average just 1 shot on target per match, casting doubt on their ability to score consistently. Marko won their only away match so far 4:2, but with such a small sample, the visitors’ advantage is far from certain.

The historical frequency of both teams scoring supports BTTS - Yes: this has occurred in 67% of Nestos matches and 100% of Marko matches, although the sample size is small. Marko have averaged 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Nestos have conceded 1.6, making an away goal seem likely. There is more doubt over the hosts’ scoring, as they managed only 0.6 goals per match over the same period, with an xG of 0.6; however, Marko have conceded an average of 1.0 goal. Both teams scored in 40% of Nestos’s last 5 matches and 60% of Marko’s, which limits confidence in the pick. Despite the league average being 41%, the goal records and historical scoring frequency of both teams give a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

In their last 5 matches, Nestos scored an average of 0.6 goals and conceded 1.6, while Marko scored 1.8 goals and conceded 1.0. This supports an expectation of around 2.6 goals, although the league average of 2.16 and the fact that only 38% of matches featured at least 3 goals temper the case for a high-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% of Nestos’s and 60% of Marko’s last 5 matches, so the signal for higher goal lines is not conclusive. Under 3.5 goals is the safest pick: despite the visitors’ attacking form, recent results and the league’s profile point to a total of no more than 3 goals.

In their last five matches, both teams were level at half-time on three occasions, while Nestos averaged just 0.2 goals in the first half, which points towards a draw after 45 minutes. Marko won four of those five matches, while Nestos lost three, so the visitors are more likely to produce a decisive result after the break. Marko averaged 1.2 goals in second halves, while Nestos conceded 1.4; the visitors won that half three times, while the hosts did not win it once. The most likely outcome is therefore a draw at half-time followed by a Marko win, although the visitors leading at the break remains a significant alternative. Marko’s average of 4.0 goals in away matches is based on just one appearance, so greater weight should be given to form across the last five matches.