New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay: match statistics
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
New Mexico United played Monterey Bay in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Stadion Patriot. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
New Mexico United: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Monterey Bay: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
New Mexico United scores 1.52 and concedes 1.19 goals per match. Monterey Bay scores 1.07 and concedes 1.74. League average: 2.71 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: New Mexico United 56%, Monterey Bay 63%. Over 2.5: New Mexico United 56%, Monterey Bay 52%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
New Mexico United has higher xG: 1.38 vs 1.28. New Mexico United: 11.7 shots per match, Monterey Bay: 10.4.
Match halves
New Mexico United: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.93. Monterey Bay: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
New Mexico United: 61-75 (11 goals). Monterey Bay: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.71 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-1. Average goals 3.20, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
New Mexico United sit 5th and have won 57% of their home matches, while 23rd-placed Monterey Bay have lost 71% of their away games. The hosts average 1.64 goals and 4.79 shots on target per match at home, while the visitors score 0.86 goals and register 2.36 shots on target per match on the road. Chance quality also favours New Mexico: their home xG is 1.54, compared with Monterey Bay’s away xG of 1.11, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth 1.83 xG per match. Both teams have recorded one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five matches, so recent form gives the hosts no additional edge. Nevertheless, the clear gap between their home and away results, along with the 1.93 goals Monterey Bay concede on average away from home, makes a New Mexico win the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have scored in 62% and 64% of their matches this season, respectively, with those rates at 60% and 80% over their last five games. New Mexico United have recently averaged 1.6 goals per match, while Monterey Bay have conceded 1.4; additionally, the visitors have kept a clean sheet in only 7% of their matches this season. The visitors’ chances of scoring are boosted by the hosts conceding an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches and allowing opponents chances worth 2.39 xG. The risk to the BTTS - Yes pick is Monterey Bay’s attack, which averages just 0.86 goals and has failed to score in 36% of matches. However, the consistent pattern of both teams scoring outweighs this concern, making BTTS - Yes the preferred pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line was cleared in 77% of New Mexico United matches and 71% of Monterey Bay matches. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.47 xG, while the visitors allow opponents 1.83 xG and concede an average of 1.93 goals, which bodes well for New Mexico to score. Monterey Bay score only 0.86 goals per match, but New Mexico concede an average of 1.54, so an away goal is also a realistic prospect. The projected total of 2.80 goals gives Over 1.5 a clearer edge than Over 2.5, which landed in 54% and 50% of these teams’ matches, respectively.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is for New Mexico United to take the lead at the break and hold on to it until full time. The hosts led at half-time in 31% of their matches, while Monterey Bay went into the break trailing in 50%; the visitors concede an average of 0.93 goals in the first half, compared with 0.23 conceded by New Mexico. The hosts’ attacking advantage also supports a home win: their average xG is 1.47, against 1.11 for the visitors, while Monterey Bay concede an average of 1.93 goals per match. A draw at half-time remains a significant alternative, having occurred in 62% of New Mexico’s matches and 50% of Monterey Bay’s. However, 1/1 has the strongest overall case, although confidence is tempered by the fact that the hosts concede an average of 1.31 goals after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| New Mexico United | Monterey Bay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
New Mexico United is 42% better for: goals scored per match.
1.52 goals / match - New Mexico United · 1.07 goals / match - Monterey Bay
New Mexico United is 46% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.19 goals / match - New Mexico United · 1.74 goals / match - Monterey Bay
New Mexico United scores in 74% of matches (20 of 27 matches), while Monterey Bay keeps a clean sheet in 15% (4 of 27 matches).
Monterey Bay scores in 70% of matches (19 of 27 matches), while New Mexico United keeps a clean sheet in 30% (8 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - New Mexico United
Over / Under - Monterey Bay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
New Mexico United is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - New Mexico United · 1 pts / match - Monterey Bay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
New Mexico United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Monterey Bay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
New Mexico United
Monterey Bay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| New Mexico United | Liga | Monterey Bay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.70 | 2.71 | ▲ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 54% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 50% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 28% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 66% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 78% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): New Mexico United 3 - 1 - 1 Monterey Bay. Average goals 3.20, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?
The USL Championship match finished New Mexico United 3:1 Monterey Bay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between New Mexico United and Monterey Bay?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches New Mexico United won 3, Monterey Bay won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.20 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?
New Mexico United score 1.52 goals per game on average and Monterey Bay 1.07. The USL Championship average is 2.71 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 56% of New Mexico United's matches and 63% of Monterey Bay's.
What form are New Mexico United and Monterey Bay in?
Over the last 5 games New Mexico United have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Monterey Bay 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.