New Mexico United vs San Antonio: match statistics

New Mexico United are very strong at home: they win 67% of their matches, score an average of 1.56 goals and concede just 0.89 per game. The hosts are also in excellent form, having won 4, drawn 1 and scored 11 goals while conceding only 3 in their last five matches. San Antonio win just 30% of their away games, draw as many as 50% and fail to score in 40% of them. New Mexico’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: they average 13.11 shots and 4.89 shots on target per match, compared with 10.8 and 3.3 for the visitors. San Antonio have a genuine chance of securing a draw thanks to solid possession figures of 55%, but their weaker recent form, with just 6 goals in five matches, points to a home win.

The seasonal BTTS rate is only 45% for New Mexico United and 50% for San Antonio, while the league average stands at 53%, which slightly supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score. New Mexico United kept a clean sheet in 36% of matches and conceded just 3 goals in their last five games, averaging 0.6 per match. San Antonio failed to score in 40% of their league matches and averages 1.20 xG, which reduces confidence that they can breach the hosts’ in-form defense. The home side are in good scoring form, with 11 goals in their last five matches, but their BTTS rate during this period is 40%, making a one-sided win with the opponent failing to score more likely than both teams finding the net. Therefore, the recommended selection is BTTS - No: at least one team is expected not to score. This does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

New Mexico United score an average of 1.27 goals per match, compared with 1.20 for San Antonio, indicating a moderate baseline attacking potential for both teams. However, the hosts are in excellent form, scoring 11 goals in their last 5 matches, while San Antonio have conceded 7 goals during that period. Despite this, matches featuring over 3.5 goals have been rare: this line was surpassed in just 18% of New Mexico United’s matches and 20% of San Antonio’s. In addition, the hosts keep a clean sheet in 36% of their appearances, while the visitors do so in 30%, meaning a low-scoring scenario remains realistic. The projected total of 2.62 goals allows for a result around 2-1 or 1-1, but clearly favors the Under 3.5 goals market.

A draw at half-time followed by a New Mexico United win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches and conceded only 0.2 goals before the break during that period. First halves are typically cautious: New Mexico average 0.64 goals in the opening 45 minutes, while San Antonio average 0.50, with both teams scoring before half-time in only 9% of the hosts’ matches. After the break, the advantage should shift to the hosts, who have averaged 1.6 goals in the second half across their last five matches, compared with 0.8 for San Antonio. Full-match form also clearly favors New Mexico: the hosts have won four of their last five matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while the visitors have lost two of their five matches and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. In addition, New Mexico have higher average xG, 1.57 versus 1.20, and record more shots on target, 4.64 versus 3.30, further supporting the scenario of the match being decided after half-time.