New York RB vs Charlotte: match statistics

I predict a home win (New York RB). At home New York averages 12.71 shots and 4.29 on target per match with an average xG of 1.55, while Charlotte on the road averages 8.5 shots and 3.33 on target with an average xG of 1.10, which translates into better scoring opportunities for the hosts. New York scores an average of 1.86 goals at home and has a 43% home win rate, whereas Charlotte scores 1.00 goals on the road and has only a 17% away win rate. Both teams concede a lot of goals (2.00 for the hosts vs 2.33 for the visitors), but Charlotte has a higher xG against — 1.90 — and 0% clean sheets away, indicating a weaker away defense. New York in the last five matches has a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss and averages 2.0 points per match, while Charlotte has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses and averages 1.4 points per match; based on this I assess the probabilities as: 60% home win, 20% draw, 20% away win.

The seasonal BTTS rate for both teams stands at 67% each (NYRB 67%, Charlotte 67%), with the league BTTS level at 61%, providing a strong baseline signal for BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 matches NYRB has BTTS 80% and averages 1.8 goals scored, while Charlotte has BTTS 40% and averages 1.2, so short-term confidence favors the home side. NYRB produces 1.51 xG with 5.67 shots on target and a 16% conversion rate, and Charlotte concedes 1.9 xG and loses on average 2.33 goals away (0% clean sheets on the road) — this increases the likelihood NYRB will score. Charlotte has 1.1 xG and a seasonal goals scored average of 1.0, while NYRB concedes 1.28 xG and loses on average 1.0 goals over the season (1.4 in the last 5), indicating Charlotte also has a realistic chance to score. Considering the season-long 67% BTTS for both teams, the league 61%, and the above xG and goals conceded comparisons, I estimate BTTS probability at 72% for Yes and 28% for No; therefore the best pick is BTTS - Yes.

I estimate total expected goals at 2.90: home xG 1.51 and Charlotte’s conceded xG 1.90 imply about 1.71 for New York RB, while away xG 1.10 versus the home defense 1.28 implies about 1.19 for Charlotte. This aligns with seasonal figures: NYRB score 2.0 goals at home on average, Charlotte concede 2.33 away, and the league average is 3.3 goals per game, supporting a multi-goal scenario. Under a Poisson distribution for a 2.90 total, the probability of Over 1.5 is ~79%, Over 2.5 ~56%, and Over 3.5 ~33%. Additionally, both teams have a 67% BTTS rate; NYRB averages 12.78 shots with 5.67 on target versus Charlotte’s 8.5 and 3.33, and a conversion of 16% vs 12% favors the hosts’ efficiency. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 — high expected total 2.90, 79% probability, and the hosts’ offensive edge (1.71 xG and greater shot volume).

I back 1/1 — home team leading at Half-Time and winning at Full-Time — because in their last 5 matches New York RB led at the break in 4 of 5 (80%) and averaged 1.2 first-half goals in those games, while Charlotte averaged 0.6 first-half goals over their last 5. Seasonally New York RB scores 2.0 goals per game with a 56% win rate, compared to Charlotte’s 1.0 goals per game and just 17% win rate; additionally the home team’s xG is 1.51 versus 1.10 for the away side. Half-Time metrics also favor the hosts — average first-half goals are 0.67 for New York RB vs 0.33 for Charlotte, and 89% of the hosts’ first halves contain at least one goal. The visitors concede 1.9 xG on average and register fewer shots on target (3.33 vs 5.67), while their season clean sheet rate is 0%, which limits their chances of keeping a shutout. Considering the 80% home lead rate in the last 5, superior xG (1.51 vs 1.10) and higher shot conversion (16% vs 12%), the 1/1 scenario has the highest probability and stands out as the strongest signal from the data.