New York RB vs Philadelphia Union: match statistics

New York RB have a moderate home advantage: they win 36% of their home matches, while Philadelphia Union win just 18% of their away games and lose as many as 64%. The hosts create slightly better chances, with an average xG of 1.66 compared with their opponents’ 1.64, while Philadelphia concede as many as 2.45 goals per away match and have kept no clean sheets on the road. The Philadelphia side are, however, in better recent form, scoring 9 goals in their last five matches and collecting 8 points, compared with just 5 goals and 4 points for New York RB. The hosts’ defence also offers no complete guarantee, conceding an average of 1.82 goals at home, but the visitors’ poor away points return and open defensive setup marginally favour a New York RB win. The match should produce goals, as the average total goals in the hosts’ home games is 3.36, while Philadelphia’s away matches average as many as 4.18.

BTTS - Yes is strongly supported by Philadelphia Union’s profile: their matches featured goals from both teams in 82% of cases, and in 80% of their last five games. The visitors score an average of 1.73 goals per match, while New York RB concede 1.10 goals per game despite a low xG conceded of 0.93; Philadelphia, however, generate a solid 1.64 xG. The key factor is Union’s poor defensive record away from home, where they concede as many as 2.45 goals on average and have failed to keep a single clean sheet, while the hosts produce 1.94 xG and average 5.0 shots on target. New York RB scored in 70% of their matches this season, and despite averaging only 1.0 goal across their last five appearances, their opponents conceded 1.6 goals per game during that period. The combination of the visitors’ high vulnerability to conceding and their own attacking efficiency provides a clear signal for a scenario in which both teams find the net.

The match profile favors goals, as Philadelphia concede an average of as many as 2.45 goals per game, while New York RB create chances worth an average of 1.94 xG. The visitors score 1.73 goals per match and register 4.45 shots on target, while the hosts have conceded an average of 1.6 goals in their last five appearances. At least two goals have been scored in 60% of New York RB matches and in as many as 91% of Philadelphia games, with the league average standing at a high 3.19 goals. Additionally, both teams have seen both sides score in 60% and 82% of their matches, respectively, which reduces the risk of a tight, low-scoring game. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.05 goals provides a clear margin above this line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as New York RB were level after 45 minutes in 5 of their 10 matches, while Philadelphia Union were level at the break in as many as 40% of their last five games. The hosts concede an average of just 0.7 goals before half-time, whereas Union, despite scoring an average of 0.64 goals in the first half, concede as many as 1.36. After the break, the advantage should shift to New York RB: they score an average of 0.8 goals and concede only 0.4, while the visitors allow their opponents 1.09 goals after half-time. The hosts’ expected full-time victory is also supported by the higher quality of chances created, with an xG of 1.94 compared with 1.64, as well as Union’s significantly weaker season-long defensive record, with the team conceding an average of 2.45 goals per match. However, Philadelphia are in better recent form, averaging 1.6 points per match in their last five appearances compared with 0.8 for the hosts, which is why the X/1 scenario is stronger than New York RB leading at the break.