Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdańsk: match statistics

Nieciecza holds a form advantage over the last five matches: 2 wins and 1.2 points per game, while Lechia has not won any of their last 5 and averages 0.2 points per game. Seasonally Lechia have scored more goals (60 vs 40) and have a slightly higher xG (1.62 vs 1.48), but away they concede an average of 2.31 goals and have 0% clean sheets, whereas Nieciecza at home concede 1.81 goals and have 6% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Nieciecza scored 7 goals versus Lechia’s 5, although both teams have conceded heavily recently (last 5: Nieciecza 12 conceded vs Lechia 11). Shot statistics show a small advantage for the visitors (13.63 shots and 4.69 on target vs 12.19 and 4.19 for the hosts) and a higher conversion rate 11% vs 9%, which reduces the home advantage, but Lechia’s poor away defensive record is decisive, so I forecast a Nieciecza win, with a moderate risk of a draw.

The 'Both Teams To Score' scenario appears highly likely: Nieciecza has a season BTTS rate of 76% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Lechia has 75% for the season and 100% in the last 5, clearly indicating both sides regularly score and concede. Defensively both teams are weak — Nieciecza concedes 1.47 goals per match this season (63 conceded) and 2.4 in the last 5, whereas Lechia concedes 2.31 goals per match this season (62 conceded) and 2.2 in the last 5, which favors BTTS outcomes. Offensively Nieciecza scores 2.12 goals per match with xG 1.8 and 6.12 shots on target, while Lechia records 1.5 goals per match with xG 1.62 and 4.69 shots on target, so both have realistic scoring chances. Additionally, 65% of Nieciecza’s matches and 81% of Lechia’s matches finish over 2.5 goals, and the combined occurrence of over 2.5 and BTTS happened in 59% of Nieciecza’s matches and 75% of Lechia’s matches, which amplifies the probability of both teams scoring. Considering these specific figures and the league BTTS of 56% while both teams are well above that level, I tip 'BTTS - Yes' with an estimated probability of 86% versus 14% for 'No Goal'.

Nieciecza scores on average 2.12 goals per match, Lechia 1.50; their xG is 1.80 (Nieciecza) and 1.62 (Lechia), while their defenses concede xG of 1.41 (Nieciecza) and 1.76 (Lechia). Matching the attacks against the opponent defenses yields a projected 1.78 goals for the home side and 1.52 for the visitors, totaling 3.30 goals. Over 1.5 appears in 94% of matches for both teams combined, while Over 2.5 occurs in 65% of Nieciecza’s games and 81% of Lechia’s; in the last 5 meetings Over 2.5 was present in 80% of cases. Additionally, the percentage of BTTS matches is 76% for Nieciecza and 75% for Lechia, and average shots on target are 6.12 vs 4.69 with conversion rates of 14% and 11%, confirming numerous scoring situations. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (over) with an estimated probability of around 80%.

Nieciecza is the favorite to be leading at the break: the home side have led at half-time in 47% of matches, while Lechia have done so in only 19%. At half-time Nieciecza score an average of 1.00 goals versus Lechia’s 0.56 and concede 0.65 goals compared to the visitors’ 1.25 conceded; they also post higher xG (1.80 vs 1.62) and more shots on target (6.12 vs 4.69), indicating an advantage in creating chances already in the first half. Over the full match Nieciecza average 2.12 goals and win 47% of games, while Lechia average 1.50 goals and win 25%, therefore I assess the 1/1 scenario as the strongest (approx. 32%). Half-time draws occur in 35% of cases, hence the X/1 variant (draw HT and Nieciecza win FT) receives a significant 18%; comebacks by the visitors after the break seem less likely given Lechia’s form (dllll and 0% wins in the last 5) and their weaker defensive record (an average of 2.31 goals conceded per match). Additionally both teams have a high percentage of BTTS matches (76% for Nieciecza and 75% for Lechia), so despite the home advantage I expect an open game and a distribution of the remaining scenarios into smaller shares.