NK Vrhnika vs Krško: match statistics

NK Vrhnika have won 3 of their 4 home matches, while Krško have recorded 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 away games, clearly favouring the hosts. At home, Vrhnika score an average of 2 goals per match and register 6.5 shots on target, whereas Krško average 1 goal and just 1.33 shots on target away from home. The difference in chance quality is reflected in xG: the hosts post 2.14 at home, while Krško manage just 0.92 on the road. Krško’s defence concedes an average of 2 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, although the hosts also have reason for caution after conceding 10 goals in their last 5 matches. Despite that risk, Vrhnika’s home advantage and Krško’s poor away form make a home win the most likely outcome.

BTTS - No has a slight edge, as NK Vrhnika failed to score in 60% of matches, compared with 33% for Krško. In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in only 40% of each team’s games, supporting the more cautious pick. The main concern is the home side: Krško concede an average of 2.0 goals per match and have yet to keep a clean sheet, so a Vrhnika goal is a realistic possibility. On the other hand, the visitors average only 1.33 shots on target per match and have an xG of 0.92, so they could fail to score despite the hosts conceding an average of 1.8 goals. The edge for BTTS - No is slight, as Krško averaged 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Vrhnika conceded 2.0.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals: this total was reached in 100% of Krška’s matches and 60% of NK Vrhnika’s matches. The visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals, while the hosts concede 1.8, suggesting both defences give opponents chances to score. Each team’s last five matches averaged 3.2 goals, further supporting Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is less certain, as it was surpassed in only 33% of Krška’s matches, compared with 60% of NK Vrhnika’s.

NK Vrhnika led at the break in 2 of their 5 home matches, while Krško were trailing at half-time in 2 of their 3 away games and did not lead at the break in any of them. The hosts average 1.42 xG compared with the visitors’ 0.92, and register 4.6 shots on target per match against 1.33, pointing to a likely advantage from the outset. Holding on to the lead is the most likely scenario, as Krško have lost 67% of their away matches, conceding an average of 2.0 goals, while Vrhnika have won 40% of their home games. However, the 1/1 HT/FT pick is not a certainty: the hosts average just 0.2 goals after the break, compared with 0.67 for the visitors, so a turnaround remains a real threat.