Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United: match statistics
Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nõmme Kalju played Nõmme United in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 22 April 2026. Final score: 7:1.
Current form
Nõmme Kalju: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Nõmme United: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nõmme Kalju scores 1.57 and concedes 0.43 goals per match. Nõmme United scores 2.43 and concedes 2.00. League average: 3.06 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nõmme Kalju 29%, Nõmme United 86%. Over 2.5: Nõmme Kalju 29%, Nõmme United 86%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme Kalju has higher xG: 1.74 vs 1.64. Nõmme Kalju: 13.9 shots per match, Nõmme United: 12.4.
Match halves
Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 57%, second-half goals 0.86. Nõmme United: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 1.43.
Goals by minute
Nõmme Kalju: 61-75 (4 goals). Nõmme United: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.06 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match favourites are the hosts Nõmme Kalju: at home they average 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game, register 13.33 shots with 5.33 on target and have 58% possession. Nõmme United away score only 0.67 goals per game with 9.33 shots and 3.33 on target, have a conversion rate around 7% and concede 2.33 goals on average; they have yet to record an away win (0% wins) and have no clean sheets (0%). In the last 5 matches Kalju have a 3-1-1 record, scoring 9 and conceding 3 goals and averaging 2 points per game, while United over the same period are 1-1-3 with 10 scored and 10 conceded and average 0.8 points per game. xG confirms the hosts’ advantage: average xG for Kalju is 1.74 versus 1.29 for United, and xG against 1.57 versus 2.02 shows the visitors create less valuable chances. Due to superior conversion (18% vs 7%), more stable defending and possession dominance I forecast a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The primary signal for BTTS is the seasonal percentage of matches with both teams scoring: Nõmme Kalju has 100% BTTS, and Nõmme United 67%, with both teams having 0% clean sheets this season, which strongly favors both sides scoring. Offensive metrics confirm goal pressure: Kalju averages 3.75 goals per match this season with xG 1.90, records 14.75 shots (6.75 on target) and has a 25% conversion, while United averages 9.33 shots (3.33 on target) with a 7% conversion and has xG against 2.02, indicating a risk of conceding. Defensive data points to an open game — Kalju concedes 1.75 goals per match on average, United concedes 2.33, and the league average goals is 3.11, further increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Last 5 matches give a mixed signal: United has 100% BTTS and scores an average of 2.0 goals in the last 5, whereas Kalju has only 40% BTTS and concedes an average of 0.6 goals in their last 5, which weakens the home advantage but does not negate seasonal trends. Considering seasonal BTTS 100% vs 67%, 0% clean sheets for both teams, and higher xG and more frequent goals conceded by United (xG against 2.02, conceding 2.33), I tip BTTS "Yes" with a probability of 78% versus 22% for "No".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Nõmme Kalju scores an average of 3.75 goals at home with xG 1.9, while Nõmme United averages 0.67 goals away with xG 1.29 — combined xG ≈3.19. Season-long metrics show the home side has 100% of matches over 1.5 and 100% over 2.5, and the away side 100% over 1.5 and 67% over 2.5; the league averages 63% of matches over 2.5. In the last 5 matches the combined xG is 3.23 (1.73 + 1.5), and actual goals in the last 5 are 19 (9 home, 10 away) — an average of 3.8 goals per match, which reinforces an over signal. The mix of a high-scoring home attack (3.75 goals), 100% home over2.5 rate and combined xG ≈3.2 yields a strong probability of at least 3 goals, therefore I assess Over 2.5 at 82%. Over 1.5 is virtually certain (99%), while Over 3.5 has a moderate chance around 60% due to xG being below 3.5 despite the home team often exceeding that threshold.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Seasonal figures show a clear advantage for Nõmme Kalju: the home side averages 3.75 goals per match versus 0.67 for the opponents and records 1.75 goals at half-time compared to 0.0 for Nõmme United (12 HT goals vs 3), so a home lead at the break is realistic. The quality gap in chances is visible in xG 1.90 vs 1.29, 6.75 shots on target vs 3.33 and conversion rates of 25% vs 7%, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead and converting additional chances. Additionally, the hosts led at half-time in 50% of matches, and after the break they score an average of 2.0 goals and have a +6 goal differential in second halves, which supports a scenario of extending the lead. Form confirms this in practice — in the last five matches the hosts have won 60% of games while the visitors only 20% — therefore my primary pick is 1/1 (lead at half-time and home win), with X/1 or X/X considered as lower-probability alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nõmme Kalju | Nõmme United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nõmme Kalju is 150% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 0.8 pts / match - Nõmme United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme United is 55% better for: goals scored per match.
1.57 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju · 2.43 goals / match - Nõmme United
Nõmme Kalju is 365% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.43 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju · 2 goals / match - Nõmme United
Nõmme Kalju scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while Nõmme United keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
Nõmme United scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 57% (4 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nõmme Kalju
Over / Under - Nõmme United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 55% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.29 pts / match - Nõmme United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 57% of matches and wins 71%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nõmme United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nõmme Kalju
Nõmme United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Nõmme Kalju | Liga | Nõmme United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 3.06 | ▲ 4.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 29% | 56% | ▲ 86% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 29% | 61% | ▲ 86% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 57% | 24% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 67% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 92% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United?
The Meistriliiga match finished Nõmme Kalju 7:1 Nõmme United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United?
Nõmme Kalju score 1.57 goals per game on average and Nõmme United 2.43. The Meistriliiga average is 3.06 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 29% of Nõmme Kalju's matches and 86% of Nõmme United's.
What form are Nõmme Kalju and Nõmme United in?
Over the last 5 games Nõmme Kalju have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Nõmme United 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.