Nõmme Kalju vs Tallinna FC Levadia: match statistics
Nõmme Kalju vs Tallinna FC Levadia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nõmme Kalju played Tallinna FC Levadia in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Nõmme Kalju: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Tallinna FC Levadia: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nõmme Kalju scores 2.00 and concedes 0.20 goals per match. Tallinna FC Levadia scores 2.00 and concedes 1.00. League average: 3.30 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nõmme Kalju 20%, Tallinna FC Levadia 80%. Over 2.5: Nõmme Kalju 40%, Tallinna FC Levadia 60%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 67%.
xG, shots and style
Tallinna FC Levadia has higher xG: 2.12 vs 1.89. Nõmme Kalju: 15.4 shots per match, Tallinna FC Levadia: 18.0.
Match halves
Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 80%, second-half goals 1.00. Tallinna FC Levadia: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 1.20.
Goals by minute
Nõmme Kalju: 61-75 (3 goals). Tallinna FC Levadia: 61-75 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.30 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 67%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-2. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 75%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nõmme Kalju sit at the top with a perfect start: 5-0-0, 10 goals scored and only 1 conceded. At home Kalju averages 3.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game, with roughly 16 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match and a conversion rate of 19%. Tallinna FC Levadia away also averages 3.0 goals per game and registers more attempts (25 shots per match) and higher average xG (2.8 vs 2.04 for Kalju), but has actually conceded 5 goals this season and concedes 1.0 goal on average away. In the last 5 matches Kalju won all 5 (10-1) and averages 3.0 points per game, while Levadia’s run is 3 wins and 2 draws (10-5 in the last 5, 2.2 points per game), which indicates a home advantage in form and defensive organization. Considering Kalju’s superior efficiency (conversion 19% vs 12%), lower average goals conceded at home (0.5 vs 1.0) and 50% clean sheets in home matches, I forecast a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal metrics strongly favor BTTS: Nõmme Kalju has BTTS in 75% of matches, while Tallinna FC Levadia is at 100%, providing a clear signal for "Both Teams To Score". Offensively Levadia averages 3.0 goals per game with xG 2.80; the hosts have xG 1.96 (combined xG 4.76). Shots 25.0 vs 16.25 and 5.0 shots on target each confirm a high volume of scoring opportunities. The counterargument is Kalju’s form in the last 5 matches: only 20% BTTS in those five fixtures, an average of 0.2 goals conceded and a 5-game winning run, indicating the hosts recently often keep a clean sheet. However, Levadia have zero clean sheets this season (clean sheet 0%) and in their last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 80% of games; seasonally they concede on average 1.0 goal, so the visitors regularly allow goals. Considering the seasonal 75%/100% BTTS, the high combined xG of 4.76 and the league average of 3.12 goals per game, I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of around 80%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and match-statistics analysis indicates an advantage for the over market: attacking xG is 1.96 for Nõmme Kalju and 2.80 for Tallinna Levadia, and after accounting for opponents' defensive xG (0.96 for the visitors and 0.91 for the home side) I project 1.46 goals for the home team and 1.86 for the away team, totalling 3.32. This season both teams have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals, while BTTS is 75% for Kalju and 100% for Levadia, which supports a high probability of goals from both sides. Levadia averages 3.0 goals from 25 shots (5 on target) with a 12% conversion rate, versus 1.75 goals, 16.25 shots (5 on target) and an 11% conversion for Kalju, increasing the likelihood of more than 2 goals in the match. A Poisson distribution model with combined λ=3.32 yields roughly 84% for Over 1.5 goals, about 64% for Over 2.5 goals and about 42% for Over 3.5 goals, therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal points to a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time away win (X/2): Tallinna FC Levadia have been level at the break in 100% of their matches to date while also recording 100% wins this season, suggesting frequent turnarounds after the break. Levadia have a higher xG — 2.8 versus the hosts’ 1.96 — and average 25 shots per match compared to Nõmme Kalju’s 16.25, giving them an offensive advantage in the second half. At half-time the hosts average 0.75 goals and the visitors 1.0 (0.75 vs 1.0); however Nõmme Kalju led at the break in 2 of 4 matches (50%), so the HT draw is statistically justified. Both teams often score (BTTS: 75% for the hosts and 100% for the visitors), so I assigned the highest probability to X/2 (34%) and significant shares to variants combining goals with a Half-Time draw.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nõmme Kalju | Tallinna FC Levadia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nõmme Kalju is 36% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 2.2 pts / match - Tallinna FC Levadia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme Kalju is 400% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.2 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1 goals / match - Tallinna FC Levadia
Nõmme Kalju scores in 100% of matches (5 of 5 matches), while Tallinna FC Levadia keeps a clean sheet in 20% (1 of 5 matches).
Tallinna FC Levadia scores in 100% of matches (5 of 5 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 80% (4 of 5 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nõmme Kalju
Over / Under - Tallinna FC Levadia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.4 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.8 pts / match - Tallinna FC Levadia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 80% of matches and wins 100%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tallinna FC Levadia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nõmme Kalju
Tallinna FC Levadia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Nõmme Kalju | Liga | Tallinna FC Levadia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.20 | 3.30 | ▼ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 20% | 59% | ▲ 80% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 67% | ▼ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 80% | 20% | • 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 74% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 60% | 93% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Nõmme Kalju 2 - 0 - 2 Tallinna FC Levadia. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 75% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nõmme Kalju vs Tallinna FC Levadia?
The Meistriliiga match finished Nõmme Kalju 1:1 Tallinna FC Levadia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nõmme Kalju and Tallinna FC Levadia?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Nõmme Kalju won 2, Tallinna FC Levadia won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 75% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nõmme Kalju vs Tallinna FC Levadia?
Nõmme Kalju score 2.00 goals per game on average and Tallinna FC Levadia 2.00. The Meistriliiga average is 3.30 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 67% of games. Both teams score in 20% of Nõmme Kalju's matches and 80% of Tallinna FC Levadia's.
What form are Nõmme Kalju and Tallinna FC Levadia in?
Over the last 5 games Nõmme Kalju have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Tallinna FC Levadia 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nõmme Kalju vs Tallinna FC Levadia?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nõmme Kalju vs Tallinna FC Levadia: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.