Nõmme United vs Harju Jalgpallikool: match statistics
Nõmme United vs Harju Jalgpallikool: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nõmme United played Harju Jalgpallikool in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 18 April 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Nõmme United: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Harju Jalgpallikool: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nõmme United scores 2.67 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Harju Jalgpallikool scores 1.50 and concedes 1.50. League average: 3.16 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nõmme United 83%, Harju Jalgpallikool 50%. Over 2.5: Nõmme United 83%, Harju Jalgpallikool 50%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme United has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.49. Nõmme United: 12.3 shots per match, Harju Jalgpallikool: 12.2.
Match halves
Nõmme United: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.67. Harju Jalgpallikool: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Nõmme United: 46-60 (4 goals). Harju Jalgpallikool: 46-60 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.16 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nõmme United holds a clear offensive advantage: they average 4.67 goals in home matches, while Harju Jalgpallikool scores 2.00 goals away; in the last 5 meetings Nõmme have scored 16 goals (3.20 per game) versus 7 (1.40) for the visitors. The difference in chances quality is significant — the hosts register 7.67 shots on target and 15.33 total shots at home with a 30% conversion rate, while the visitors have only 3.33 on target from 17.00 shots and a 12% conversion. xG paints a more balanced picture (xG For 1.99 for Nõmme vs 1.86 for Harju), suggesting Nõmme’s edge is mainly due to higher efficiency (Nõmme scores 4.67 goals with an xG of 1.99). Defensively Harju performs slightly better away — they concede 1.33 goals on average versus 1.67 conceded by Nõmme at home and have 33% clean sheets compared to 0% for the hosts; simultaneously both teams have 0% of matches without scoring (they always score). Considering the hosts’ higher finishing efficiency, greater number of shots on target, superior goal differential and better points-per-game in the last 5 (1.4 vs 1.2), I forecast a Nõmme United win; estimated probabilities are 65% home, 15% draw and 20% away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The league has a high BTTS rate of 60%, with seasonal values of 33% for Nõmme United and 67% for Harju Jalgpallikool, giving an initial edge toward a both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 matches the home side has BTTS 100% — scoring an average of 3.2 goals and conceding 1.8 — while the away side has BTTS 40% in their last 5 (averaging 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded), so recent form favors the home signal for goals from both teams. xG indicates Harju generates more expected goals (xG 1.86 vs 1.12 for the hosts), and Nõmme has a high xG against of 2.23, suggesting the visitors have real scoring ability and the hosts are vulnerable to conceding. Additionally, the visitors average 17.0 shots per game versus 7.33 for the hosts, and both teams keep a clean sheet in only 33% of matches, therefore I assess the probability of BTTS as clearly higher (75% vs 25%) and recommend the market: BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams have 100% of their season matches over 1.5 goals (home 100% and away 100%), which is a very strong signal for Over 1.5. xG comparison: home xG_for = 1.12 versus away xG_against = 1.96 projects 1.54 goals for the home side, and away xG_for = 1.86 versus home xG_against = 2.23 projects 2.05 for the visitors — a combined 3.59 expected goals. Additionally, the home team scored 16 goals in their last 5 matches (3.2 per game average), and the league average is 3.27 goals per match, which amplifies the likelihood of multiple goals. Over 2.5 stats are more mixed (seasonOver25: home 33% vs away 67%, in the last 5 matches home 80% vs away 40%), therefore the strongest and most reliable pick is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select HT draw and away win (X/2): the home team drew at the break in 67% of their season matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 67.0), and the average goals at half-time for both teams is 1.0 (AVGHT_home 1.0, AVGHT_away 1.0), which favors a draw at the break. However, the away team is clearly stronger over the full match: they have 67% seasonal wins (winPercentage_away = 67.0) and score on average 2.0 goals per match versus 1.0 for the home side (seasonScoredAVG_away 2.0 vs seasonScoredAVG_home 1.0). Additionally, the away team generates higher xG: 1.86 compared to 1.12 for the home team (xg_for_avg_away 1.86 vs xg_for_avg_home 1.12) and they more often score after the break (scored_2hg_avg_away 1.33 vs scored_2hg_avg_home 0.67), giving them an advantage in the second half. I partially accounted for the home team’s form — in the last 5 matches they led at the break in 40% of cases and have 1.2 half-time goals in those games (last5_leadingAtHTPercentage_overall_home 40.0, last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_home 1.2), which is why I left moderate probabilities for 1/1 and 1/2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nõmme United | Harju Jalgpallikool | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 45% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nõmme United is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Nõmme United · 1.2 pts / match - Harju Jalgpallikool
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme United is 78% better for: goals scored per match.
2.67 goals / match - Nõmme United · 1.5 goals / match - Harju Jalgpallikool
Harju Jalgpallikool is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - Nõmme United · 1.5 goals / match - Harju Jalgpallikool
Nõmme United scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Harju Jalgpallikool keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
Harju Jalgpallikool scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Nõmme United keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nõmme United
Over / Under - Harju Jalgpallikool
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme United is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Nõmme United · 1 pts / match - Harju Jalgpallikool
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nõmme United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Harju Jalgpallikool - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nõmme United
Harju Jalgpallikool
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Nõmme United | Liga | Harju Jalgpallikool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.67 | 3.16 | ▼ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 83% | 59% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 83% | 63% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 22% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 91% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Nõmme United vs Harju Jalgpallikool?
The Meistriliiga match finished Nõmme United 1:2 Harju Jalgpallikool. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nõmme United vs Harju Jalgpallikool?
Nõmme United score 2.67 goals per game on average and Harju Jalgpallikool 1.50. The Meistriliiga average is 3.16 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 83% of Nõmme United's matches and 50% of Harju Jalgpallikool's.
What form are Nõmme United and Harju Jalgpallikool in?
Over the last 5 games Nõmme United have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Harju Jalgpallikool 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nõmme United vs Harju Jalgpallikool?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nõmme United vs Harju Jalgpallikool: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.