North Texas vs St. Louis City II: match statistics
North Texas vs St. Louis City II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
North Texas played St. Louis City II in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 5 July 2026. Venue: Toyota Stadium. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
North Texas: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. St. Louis City II: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
North Texas scores 1.64 and concedes 1.43 goals per match. St. Louis City II scores 1.75 and concedes 1.56. League average: 3.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: North Texas 57%, St. Louis City II 63%. Over 2.5: North Texas 50%, St. Louis City II 63%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
St. Louis City II has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.35. North Texas: 11.0 shots per match, St. Louis City II: 13.9.
Match halves
North Texas: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.79. St. Louis City II: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
North Texas: 31-45+ (7 goals). St. Louis City II: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.23 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-4. Average goals 2.75, BTTS 25%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (1): North Texas averages 2.4 goals per home game with an average xG of 1.66 and has 10 goals in the last 5 matches, while St. Louis City II scores 1.5 goals away and has 6 goals in those five games. On paper St. Louis has a better season record (7 wins and 28 goals vs. 4 wins and 23 goals for North Texas), but that advantage doesn't translate on the road — visitors have a negative away goal differential (-2) and concede 1.75 goals on average. Defensively both teams are vulnerable: North Texas concedes 1.6 at home (xG against 1.78) and has 0% clean sheets, while St. Louis concedes 1.75 away, although they have 25% clean sheets. In attack the hosts have a quality edge — 13.8 average shots and 6 on target per home match with a 17% conversion, versus 12.25 shots and 5.38 on target and 12% conversion for the visitors. Form also favors North Texas: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 5 (1.6 points per match) vs. 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses for St. Louis (1.0 points per match); in that sequence the hosts scored 10 and conceded 6, while the visitors scored 6 and conceded 9. Considering the higher attacking productivity of the hosts, better recent results and superiority in chance volume, I give North Texas a 55% chance to win, 25% for a draw and 20% for a St. Louis win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I recommend BTTS - Yes. St. Louis City II has a season BTTS rate of 75% versus 50% for North Texas, while the league BTTS level is 62%, all favoring a both-teams-to-score scenario. In terms of goals, North Texas averages 2.0 scored and concedes 1.38 per game, while St. Louis City II scores 1.5 and concedes 1.75, indicating both teams possess attacking potential and defensive vulnerability. xG supports this: North Texas has xG_for 1.82 and xG_against 1.31, St. Louis has xG_for 1.6 and xG_against 1.5, so expected goals on both sides are meaningful. Offensively North Texas averages 15.5 shots with 6.25 on target, St. Louis 12.25 shots with 5.38 on target, with conversion rates of 13% vs 12%, providing realistic potential for at least one goal from each side. Additionally, both teams recorded 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches, and St. Louis has 0% of season games with over 2.5 goals without BTTS, reinforcing the expectation both teams will score. Considering the above and the fact the home side has a higher clean sheet percentage (38% vs 25%), I assign 68% to YES and 32% to NO as the most justified forecast.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Statistical analysis points to an open game: North Texas averages 2.0 goals at home, St. Louis City II 1.5 on the road, and xG is 1.82 versus 1.60. Combining xG and seasonal averages yields about 1.75 expected goals for the home side and 1.45 for the visitors, i.e. ~3.20 total. Seasonal percentages confirm this bias — North Texas has Over 1.5 in 100% of matches, St. Louis in 88%, and Over 2.5 occurs for the home team in 75% and for the away team in 50% of games. Additionally both teams scored in 50% of North Texas matches and 75% of St. Louis matches, which increases the likelihood of more than two goals; therefore the strongest signal is over 1.5 (selection: over 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
North Texas led at the break in 50% of matches and scores an average of 0.88 goals in the first half versus 0.63 for St. Louis City II, giving the home side an advantage already before half-time. Home xG is 1.82 compared to 1.60 for the visitors, and the hosts register on average 15.5 shots (6.25 on target) versus 12.25 and 5.38 for the opponents, indicating higher-quality chances for the home team. In the second half North Texas averages 1.13 goals and concedes 0.88, meaning they can maintain or extend a lead after the break. Given the 50% home win rate, an xG advantage of +0.22 and superior shot productivity, the most reliable signal is 1/1 (lead at the break and home win), hence a 40% estimate for this scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| North Texas | St. Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
North Texas is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - North Texas · 1 pts / match - St. Louis City II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
St. Louis City II is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
1.64 goals / match - North Texas · 1.75 goals / match - St. Louis City II
North Texas is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.43 goals / match - North Texas · 1.56 goals / match - St. Louis City II
North Texas scores in 64% of matches (9 of 14 matches), while St. Louis City II keeps a clean sheet in 31% (5 of 16 matches).
St. Louis City II scores in 88% of matches (14 of 16 matches), while North Texas keeps a clean sheet in 7% (1 of 14 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - North Texas
Over / Under - St. Louis City II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
North Texas is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.64 pts / match - North Texas · 1.44 pts / match - St. Louis City II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
North Texas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 29%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
St. Louis City II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
North Texas
St. Louis City II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| North Texas | Liga | St. Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.07 | 3.23 | • 3.31 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 57% | 61% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 65% | ▼ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 7% | 21% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 75% | ▲ 88% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 79% | 83% | ▼ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): North Texas 0 - 0 - 4 St. Louis City II. Average goals 2.75, both teams scored in 25% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of North Texas vs St. Louis City II?
The MLS Next Pro match finished North Texas 3:0 St. Louis City II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between North Texas and St. Louis City II?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches North Texas won 0, St. Louis City II won 4 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before North Texas vs St. Louis City II?
North Texas score 1.64 goals per game on average and St. Louis City II 1.75. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 57% of North Texas's matches and 63% of St. Louis City II's.
What form are North Texas and St. Louis City II in?
Over the last 5 games North Texas have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and St. Louis City II 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for North Texas vs St. Louis City II?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.