Northampton Town vs Crawley Town: match statistics

Crawley Town have a clearly more favorable results trend: they have averaged 1.4 points per match over their last five games, compared with just 0.2 for Northampton Town. The hosts have failed to score in both of their matches this season and in each of their last five outings, while 100% of their home games have ended without a goal. The visitors won their only away match so far, averaging 2 goals from 13 shots per game with a 15% conversion rate. Northampton have solid defensive metrics at home, with an xG against of 0.54 and a clean sheet, but their attacking xG of 1.09 has yet to translate into a goal. Crawley create slightly more quality chances, with an average xG of 1.26, so despite a potentially even start, they have a greater chance of securing an away win.

The strongest signal points to Northampton’s attacking problems: the hosts have failed to score both in the season data and in their last 5 matches, with BTTS at 0% and 0%, respectively. Crawley have averaged just 0.8 goals across their last five games and kept a clean sheet in 2 of them, conceding 3 goals in total. Although Northampton have an unfavorable average xG against them of 1.99, the visitors also do not offer an attack that guarantees an open game, with their BTTS rate from the last 5 appearances standing at just 20%. Northampton’s average xG is 1.16, but their current zero conversion rate despite 4 shots on target per game clearly reduces the likelihood of both sides scoring. Therefore, the BTTS - No scenario is more likely primarily because at least one team, especially the hosts, may once again finish the match without scoring.

Northampton have failed to score in their last 5 matches, while conceding 8 goals in total, which significantly limits their contribution to a high-scoring game. Crawley are also not currently showing a particularly effective attack: they have averaged 0.8 goals scored over their last five matches, despite recording an average xG of 1.14. The visitors’ defence conceded only 3 goals during this period, or 0.6 per match, while the hosts failed to find the net in any of these fixtures. Matches involving Northampton finished Over 2.5 goals in 40% of their last five games, whereas Crawley’s figure stands at just 20%. The projected total of 1.95 goals indicates that the 3.5 line is clearly inflated, making Under 3.5 the selection best supported by the data.

Crawley have a clearly stronger performance profile: they average 2.0 goals and a perfect 3.0 points per match, while Northampton have yet to earn a point or score a goal. The visitors’ advantage is already evident before half-time, as they were leading at the break in 100% of their matches so far, scoring an average of 1.0 goal, whereas the hosts have failed to score during the same period on every occasion. In their last five matches, Northampton have lost 80% of their games, scoring 0.0 goals and conceding 1.6, while Crawley are averaging 1.4 points per match and conceding just 0.6 goals. The chance-quality metrics also favour the visitors: Northampton allow opponents an xG of 1.99, significantly higher than Crawley’s 0.90. The most likely scenario is therefore that Crawley will take the lead at the break and hold on to it until the final whistle.