NorthEast United vs Mohammedan: match statistics

NorthEast United holds a clear advantage in chance creation and finishing – at home they average 11.71 shots, 4.29 on target and xG 1.47, converting 1.43 goals per game, while Mohammedan away records only 7.11 shots, 1.78 on target, xG 0.88 and 0.67 goals per game. Defensively Mohammedan performs worse: they concede on average 2.44 goals away with xG against 2.25, whereas NorthEast concedes 2.00 goals at home with xG against 1.47, indicating the visitors are more exposed to clear-cut chances. The form gap confirms the home side’s edge – NorthEast scored 8 goals and averaged 1.4 points in the last 5 matches, while Mohammedan has 4 goals and just 0.6 points over the same period. Additionally, Mohammedan have no away wins (0) and a negative away goal difference (-16 versus -4 at home), which further supports a home victory. Considering the xG advantage (1.47 vs 0.88), superior shots per game and the visitors’ weaker defence, I back a NorthEast United win.

Statistical analysis supports the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario. In the last 5 matches both teams produced BTTS in 60% of cases; in those five NorthEast scored 8 and conceded 7 goals, while Mohammedan scored 4 and conceded 10. Seasonally NorthEast averages 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per match, and Mohammedan averages 0.67 scored and 2.44 conceded, indicating a high risk of goals at both ends. In xG terms over the last 5 matches NorthEast has xG 1.53 versus Mohammedan’s conceded xG 1.85, while Mohammedan has xG 1.05 versus NorthEast’s conceded xG 1.44, further suggesting chances for both sides. Considering chance creation (NorthEast 9.67 shots and 3.33 on target vs Mohammedan 7.11 and 1.78) and differences in efficiency (conversion 3% vs 9%), I assign a 70% probability to BTTS 'Yes' and 30% to 'No'.

The forecast is based on expected xG: 1.19 xG for the home side and 2.25 xG conceded by Mohammedan, giving an average 1.72 expected goals for the hosts ((1.19+2.25)/2=1.72), while Mohammedan has 0.88 xG and opponents concede 1.89 which yields 1.39 for the away team ((0.88+1.89)/2=1.39), totaling 3.11 goals. Seasonal indicators confirm a goal-prone tendency — NorthEast has 100% of matches over 1.5, Mohammedan 67%, and the teams register 67% and 56% of matches over 2.5 respectively. Both sides concede many goals: NorthEast 2.67 per match and Mohammedan 2.44, and the hosts produce more shots on target (3.33 vs 1.78), supporting a scoring scenario. In the last 5 matches NorthEast scored 8 goals (1.6 per match), Mohammedan 4 (0.8 per match), so the hosts are in a more attacking form. On this basis I pick Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (biggest seasonal support and expected xG 3.11), while Over 2.5 also makes sense but is less certain.

The hosts were trailing at the break in 3 of 3 matches (100%), conceding an average of 2.33 goals by half-time and failing to score before the break. The visitors have the higher seasonal goals-per-game average, 0.67 versus the hosts' 0.33, and score on average 0.44 goals before the break; they have also accumulated 6 points in halves (0.67 points per match at half-time), supporting a scenario of Mohammedan leading after 45 minutes. However, the hosts create more chances: xG 1.19 versus 0.88, averaging 9.67 shots and 3.33 shots on target per match compared to the visitors' 7.11 and 1.78, which gives them realistic potential for a turnaround after the break. Second-half statistics show the hosts perform better after half-time (an average of 1.33 points in the second half and 1.0 goal in the last five second halves), while Mohammedan concedes on average 1.22 goals after the break; therefore the most likely scenario is HT=visitors and FT=draw. Accordingly, I assign HT/FT 2/X the highest probability (38%), then 2/2 (25%) and 2/1 (11%), with the remaining variants assessed as less likely.