Norwich City vs Birmingham City: match statistics

Norwich have a clear attacking advantage at home: they average 2.11 xG, 20 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match, while Birmingham manage 1.15 xG and 9.5 shots away from home. The hosts score 2.5 goals per home game and have failed to score in none of their matches, whereas the visitors have been blanked in 50% of their away fixtures. Birmingham are defensively solid, however, conceding just 0.5 goals per away game with 0.86 xG against and keeping a clean sheet in half of their matches. Norwich have not kept a clean sheet in any home game and concede an average of 1.5 goals, making a response from the visitors a realistic possibility. Nevertheless, Norwich’s edge in the quality of chances created and finishing at Carrow Road marginally favors a home win.

The BTTS signal is positive, as both teams have scored in 100% of Norwich’s matches this season and 50% of Birmingham’s, compared with a league average of 73%. Over the last five fixtures, this rate stood at 60% for Norwich and as high as 80% for Birmingham, while both teams have conceded heavily: 1.6 and 2.0 goals per match, respectively. Norwich have yet to keep a single clean sheet, whereas Birmingham have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches, which is the main factor limiting confidence in the pick. However, the hosts are averaging 1.34 xG this season and 1.61 xG over their last five matches, while Birmingham allowed opponents 1.34 xG during this period. Birmingham should also find a way through against a Norwich defence that concedes an average of 1.5 goals per match and allows opponents 1.46 xG.

The model expects 2.75 goals because Norwich have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in their last five matches, while Birmingham have recorded 1.2 and as many as 2.0, respectively. This supports at least two goals: Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Norwich’s last five matches and in 60% of Birmingham’s games, compared with a league rate of 67%. At the same time, Birmingham’s season-long profile limits the goal ceiling, as the team concede an average of just 0.5 goals and have an average xG conceded of 0.86. Norwich create an average of 1.34 xG, while Birmingham average 1.15, pointing to a match with around two or three goals rather than an open exchange leading to four. Therefore, the safest pick is Under 3.5, supported by an estimated probability of 69%.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Norwich have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded before the break in their last five matches, while Birmingham have recorded averages of 0.6 and 1.0 respectively. Norwich were leading after 45 minutes in 40% of their recent fixtures, whereas Birmingham were either drawing or trailing at that stage in a combined 80% of matches, which supports an evenly matched opening. After the interval, however, the hosts have a case for turning the game in their favour: Birmingham have conceded an average of 1.0 goal in their last five appearances and as many as 2.0 goals per match overall. Norwich have won 40% of their last five matches, compared with Birmingham’s 20%, while the league also gives the hosts a 13% home advantage. Although Birmingham have the better seasonal defensive record, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals, their current defensive form has clearly become less stable. Therefore, the HT/FT draw/Norwich win outcome (X/1) carries the strongest signal.