Noteć Czarnków vs Bałtyk Koszalin: match statistics

Noteć Czarnków have won 60% of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding 0.8, while Bałtyk Koszalin have won 40% of their away fixtures, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. The hosts create slightly better chances at home, with an average xG of 1.61 compared with the visitors’ 1.34 away from home, and also register more shots on target: 6.67 versus 5 per match. However, Noteć’s advantage is tempered by the fact that they have failed to score in 40% of their home matches, whereas Bałtyk have found the net in every away fixture. The visitors also have a slightly better record over their last five league matches, picking up 7 points compared with the hosts’ 5. Despite these signs of a closely contested game, Noteć’s greater effectiveness at home and lower average number of goals conceded point to a home win.

BTTS occurred in 57% of Noteć Czarnków’s matches and 80% of Bałtyk Koszalin’s, compared with a league average of 69%, pointing towards both teams finding the net. Bałtyk score an average of 1.6 goals per match and have scored in every match so far, while Noteć concede an average of 1.43. The hosts score an average of 1.14 goals, but the visitors’ defence allows opponents chances worth 1.94 xG per match, giving Noteć a good basis to score as well. In their last five matches, BTTS landed in 80% of Bałtyk’s games, but in only 40% of Noteć’s, so the BTTS - Yes signal is clear, though not without risk.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: at least two goals were scored in 100% of Noteć Czarnków’s matches and 80% of Bałtyk Koszalin’s matches. The visitors average 1.6 goals per match, while the hosts concede 1.43, increasing the likelihood that Bałtyk will make a significant contribution to the scoreline. Noteć average 1.14 goals, but Bałtyk allow opponents chances worth 1.94 xG per match, so a goal from the hosts is also a realistic possibility. Although the expected total is 2.85 goals, Over 2.5 landed in only 43% of Noteć’s matches and 60% of Bałtyk’s; therefore, the 1.5 line offers a clearer signal than the higher threshold.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: Noteć were level at the break in 5 of 7 matches, while Bałtyk did so in 3 of 5. The home side did not lead at half-time in any of those 7 matches and scored an average of just 0.14 goals in the first half, although the visitors averaged 1.0 goal during that period, so an early lead for them also remains a realistic possibility. Over the full match, Bałtyk hold the advantage, averaging 1.6 goals scored compared with Noteć’s 1.14, and winning 40% of their matches compared with 29%. An away win after a draw at half-time is therefore the strongest single scenario, but uncertainty is increased by the fact that Noteć average 1.0 goal after the break, while Bałtyk average 0.6.