Noteć Czarnków vs Elana Toruń: match statistics

Elana Toruń have posted very strong away numbers: they won their only match on the road so far, average 2 goals scored away from home, and remain unbeaten. The visitors are also creating significantly more high-quality chances, averaging 2.14 xG while allowing opponents just 1.01 xG. Their 18 shots and 8 shots on target per match point to a substantial attacking advantage. Noteć Czarnków lost their only home fixture, failed to score and conceded 2 goals, highlighting the hosts’ problems in this environment. Although Noteć have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall and scored 12 goals in that span, Elana remain unbeaten this season, with a record of 1 win and 2 draws, as well as the better defensive record across the competition: 4 goals conceded compared with 7. An away win is therefore the most likely outcome, although Elana’s failure to keep clean sheets away from home gives the hosts a chance to score.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is very strong, as both teams have recorded this outcome in 100% of their matches in the current campaign and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Noteć scores an average of 1.50 goals but concedes 1.50, while Elana scores 2.00 goals per match and concedes only 1.00, indicating a high probability of finding the net. The hosts create chances worth 1.90 xG, while their defence allows opponents 1.88 xG, whereas Elana generates as much as 2.14 xG per match. In their last five matches, Noteć scored an average of 2.4 goals and conceded 1.6, while Elana, despite weaker defensive form, scored 1.4 goals and allowed opponents 2.4. Additionally, the league-wide BTTS average stands at a high 74%, making a goal for both sides the most likely outcome.

Both teams have gone Over 1.5 goals in 100% of their league matches so far, and neither has kept a clean sheet. In their last five matches, Noteć averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Elana scored 1.4 and allowed opponents 2.4 goals per game. Their attacking potential is backed by xG: the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.90 xG, while the visitors post 2.14 xG, with Noteć’s defensive xG as high as 1.88. Additionally, at least three goals were scored in 80% of the last five matches played by both teams, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest and safest signal.

Noteć have clearly shown the better profile across their last five matches: they have won 3 of those 5 games, compared with just 1 win for Elana, while the hosts have averaged 2.4 goals scored against 1.4 for the visitors. The first-half signal is particularly strong, as Noteć led at the break in 60% of their last five matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded before half-time; Elana have not led at the break on any occasion, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The hosts are also consistently involved in open games, averaging 4.0 total goals across their last five appearances, with at least one second-half goal scored in 80% of those matches. Elana have the stronger data over the short-term season sample, including 2.14 xG and an average of 8 shots on target compared with Noteć’s 3, so a turnaround remains a realistic possibility. Nevertheless, Noteć’s current first-half form and their advantage in recent results provide the strongest support for the HT/FT scenario of the hosts leading at the break and securing the win after the final whistle.