Noteć Czarnków vs Grom Nowy Staw: match statistics

Noteć Czarnków have scored 12 goals in their last five matches, one more than Grom Nowy Staw, with both teams recording 3 wins during that period. However, the hosts have collected points more consistently: their record over the last five games stands at 3 wins, a draw and a defeat, while the visitors have lost their last two matches after a run of three consecutive victories. Noteć’s defence also looks slightly more reliable, having conceded 7 goals recently compared with Grom’s 8. Across the season so far, Grom have scored 2 goals and conceded 3, while Noteć’s record stands at 3 scored and 5 conceded. Nevertheless, the current attacking trend and home advantage give the hosts a slight edge. An even and open match is expected, but Noteć Czarnków have the better chance of securing a narrow victory.

Recent form strongly supports goals from both sides: Noteć Czarnków have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, while Grom Nowy Staw have done so in 100%. During this period, the hosts averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while the visitors scored 2.2 and allowed their opponents 1.6 goals per match. Their attacking potential is confirmed by high average xG figures: 1.90 for Noteć and 2.05 for Grom, with xG against standing at 1.56 and 1.66 respectively. The league has a very high BTTS rate of 78%, as well as an average of 4.67 goals per match, further supporting an open-game scenario. Although the visitors’ short-term seasonal data is incomplete, their last five appearances provide a stronger and more up-to-date signal for BTTS - Yes.

The latest form of both teams clearly points to a goal-filled match: Noteć averaged 2.4 goals in their last five matches, while Grom averaged 2.2. At the same time, the teams conceded 1.4 and 1.6 goals per match respectively, resulting in a real average total of as many as 3.8 goals across both sides of the sample. Their attacking potential is confirmed by the xG figures from the last five matches: 1.90 for Noteć and 2.05 for Grom, with xG conceded standing at 1.56 and 1.66 respectively. Grom recorded at least three total goals in 100% of their last five matches, while Noteć did so in 60%; both teams also saw both sides score in 60% and 100% of those matches respectively. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even with a cautious projection of 3.65 goals, the two-goal line offers a significantly greater safety margin than the higher thresholds.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is Noteć leading at the break and going on to win, as the home side led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 of 5 for Grom. During this period, Noteć averaged 1.4 goals before half-time, while Grom averaged 0.8, and the hosts’ half-time goal difference was +3 compared with +1 for the visitors. Across their last five matches, Noteć averaged 2.4 goals per game, while Grom conceded 1.6, strengthening the case for the home side to maintain their lead. Both teams have recorded a 60% win rate in their last five appearances, so a significant probability of a turnaround or an away win has been taken into account; however, Noteć’s first-half attacking advantage shifts the primary scenario towards 1/1. Additionally, Grom were level at half-time in 40% of their recent matches, making X/1 the most realistic alternative.