Noteć Czarnków vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce: match statistics

Noteć Czarnków has a clear advantage in the quality and volume of chances: at home they average 16 shots and 7.43 on target per match with xG 2.37, while Pogoń away records 9.78 shots, 5.11 on target and xG 1.29. Season-to-date the hosts scored 38 goals versus Pogoń’s 22, and at home Noteć scores 1.43 and concedes 1.29 on average, whereas the visitors score 1.31 away and concede 1.54. In the last 5 matches Noteć’s record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses with 5 goals and 1.4 points per game, while Pogoń has only 1 win, 4 goals and 0.8 points per game. Although Pogoń has a low share of games without scoring away (8% vs hosts’ 36%) and a slightly better shot conversion (9% vs 7%), the difference in xG against (hosts allow 1.01 xG, visitors 1.84 xG) and Noteć’s greater possession (49% vs 39%) favor the home side’s initiative. Based on this I forecast a Noteć win; estimated probabilities are 62% home win, 20% draw and 18% away win.

From xG analysis: Noteć has xG_for 1.20, while Pogoń’s defense concedes 1.84 xG, yielding an expected home goals around 1.52; Pogoń has xG_for 1.29 against Noteć’s defense xG 1.34, giving expected away goals around 1.31. Those values translate to ~78% chance the home side will score at least once and 73% chance for the away side, theoretically implying ~57% probability of BTTS - Yes. Offsetting factors are the home side’s season real figures: Noteć averages only 0.38 goals per match and has a very low shot conversion rate of 3%, with season share of matches with both teams scoring at 23% and 38% clean sheets. Pogoń, meanwhile, scores 1.31 goals seasonally and has a high season BTTS of 69%, while in the last 5 matches both teams scored in 40% (home 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, away 0.8 and 1.4), producing mixed signals. Weighing the strong xG signal and Pogoń’s porous defense (xG against 1.84) against Noteć’s low seasonal conversion, I recommend BTTS = Yes with probability 57% vs 43% for No.

xG and form analysis yields a combined forecast of approximately 2.15 goals: home xG 1.20 and away xG 1.29; however Noteć averages only 0.38 goals per season, so I realistically project 0.85 for Noteć and 1.30 for Pogoń. Applying a Poisson distribution to the 2.15 total gives roughly a 63% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), 37% chance of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and 17% chance of at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal stats support this forecast: Pogoń had 85% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Noteć 46%, and the league averages 2.94 goals with 56% of matches over 2.5. Additionally, Pogoń posts a 9% conversion rate on 5.11 shots per match and BTTS in 69% of games, while Noteć has a 3% conversion rate and only 23% BTTS, which increases the probability of exceeding the 1.5 threshold. Based on this, I recommend the Over 1.5 line as the strongest signal (play: Over, line: 1.5), whereas Over 2.5 and 3.5 appear less likely.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2) — I assigned this a 30% probability. Pogoń is more efficient offensively: average goals per match 1.31 versus Noteć’s 0.38 and a shot conversion rate of 9% versus 3%, with similar xG of 1.29 to 1.20, which suggests the visitors convert their chances more effectively. A draw at the break is most common in Noteć’s matches — 54% of their games are level at HT, while the home side lead in only 15% — so HT X has the strongest numerical support. In the second half Pogoń scores on average 1.50 goals and wins 42% of second halves, whereas Noteć wins only 8% of second halves, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will seize the initiative after the break. Therefore the distribution with a high weight on X/2 (30%), X/X (24%) and 2/2 (20%) reflects the visitors’ dominant efficiency and the frequent home-team draw at half-time, while a full win for Noteć is rated low (1/1 — 8%).