Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool: match statistics
Liverpool are in significantly better form, having earned 12 points in their last 5 matches (4 wins) compared to Nottingham Forest's 8 points. The hosts occupy a very low 17th position in the table with only a 23% home win rate, while Liverpool show a 38% away efficiency. Nottingham have as many as 54% of home matches without a goal, which, given their average of 1 goal per home game, constitutes a serious offensive issue. Liverpool control the game with 61% possession away from home and score an average of 1.54 goals, while also having a better shot conversion rate (11% vs 7%). The difference in xG (1.53 vs 1.72 for the hosts) and the goal difference (-5 for Forest, -1 for Liverpool) further favor the visitors. Taking all statistics into account, Liverpool have a clear advantage and should secure all three points in this encounter.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nottingham Forest played Liverpool in Premier League (England). The match was played on 22 February 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Nottingham Forest: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Liverpool: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nottingham Forest scores 0.96 and concedes 1.46 goals per match. Liverpool scores 1.58 and concedes 1.35. League average: 2.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nottingham Forest 38%, Liverpool 62%. Over 2.5: Nottingham Forest 50%, Liverpool 62%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Liverpool has higher xG: 1.76 vs 1.49. Nottingham Forest: 12.8 shots per match, Liverpool: 15.8.
Match halves
Nottingham Forest: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.62. Liverpool: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 1.08.
Goals by minute
Nottingham Forest: 46-60 (7 goals). Liverpool: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.76 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Liverpool are in significantly better form, having earned 12 points in their last 5 matches (4 wins) compared to Nottingham Forest's 8 points. The hosts occupy a very low 17th position in the table with only a 23% home win rate, while Liverpool show a 38% away efficiency. Nottingham have as many as 54% of home matches without a goal, which, given their average of 1 goal per home game, constitutes a serious offensive issue. Liverpool control the game with 61% possession away from home and score an average of 1.54 goals, while also having a better shot conversion rate (11% vs 7%). The difference in xG (1.53 vs 1.72 for the hosts) and the goal difference (-5 for Forest, -1 for Liverpool) further favor the visitors. Taking all statistics into account, Liverpool have a clear advantage and should secure all three points in this encounter.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nottingham Forest | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Liverpool is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.4 pts / match - Liverpool
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Liverpool is 65% better for: goals scored per match.
0.96 goals / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.58 goals / match - Liverpool
Liverpool is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.46 goals / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.35 goals / match - Liverpool
Nottingham Forest scores in 54% of matches (14 of 26 matches), while Liverpool keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
Liverpool scores in 85% of matches (22 of 26 matches), while Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet in 23% (6 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nottingham Forest
Over / Under - Liverpool
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Liverpool is 54% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.85 pts / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.31 pts / match - Liverpool
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nottingham Forest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Liverpool - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Nottingham Forest | Liga | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.42 | 2.76 | ▲ 2.92 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 56% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 54% | ▲ 62% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 23% | 26% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | • 73% | 72% | ▼ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 80% | ▲ 92% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 - 0 Liverpool. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
The Premier League match finished Nottingham Forest 0:1 Liverpool. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Nottingham Forest score 0.96 goals per game on average and Liverpool 1.58. The Premier League average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 62% of Liverpool's.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool in?
Over the last 5 games Nottingham Forest have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Liverpool 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.