Notts County vs Swindon Town: match statistics
Notts County presents solid home form with 54% of matches won at home and an impressive +10 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.77 goals per home match with only 15% of games without scoring, testifying to an effective offense. Swindon Town, despite a similar away win percentage (54%), is in weaker form with three defeats in the last five matches and a 9:9 goal record in this period. A key factor is Notts County's advantage in possession (58% vs 54%) and better home defense (averaging 1 goal conceded vs 1.23 for the visitors). Considering the home pitch advantage, better current form (2 wins in the last 5 matches vs Swindon's poor streak), and xG statistics showing an advantage for the hosts, I expect a victory for Notts County, although the class difference is not large enough to rule out a draw or a surprise by the visitors.
Notts County vs Swindon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Notts County played Swindon Town in EFL League Two (England). The match was played on 27 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Notts County: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Swindon Town: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Notts County scores 1.50 and concedes 1.04 goals per match. Swindon Town scores 1.62 and concedes 1.19. League average: 2.63 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Notts County 58%, Swindon Town 54%. Over 2.5: Notts County 50%, Swindon Town 62%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Swindon Town has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.28. Notts County: 10.7 shots per match, Swindon Town: 12.6.
Match halves
Notts County: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.88. Swindon Town: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Notts County: 76-90+ (10 goals). Swindon Town: 0-15 (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League Two: 2.63 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Notts County presents solid home form with 54% of matches won at home and an impressive +10 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.77 goals per home match with only 15% of games without scoring, testifying to an effective offense. Swindon Town, despite a similar away win percentage (54%), is in weaker form with three defeats in the last five matches and a 9:9 goal record in this period. A key factor is Notts County's advantage in possession (58% vs 54%) and better home defense (averaging 1 goal conceded vs 1.23 for the visitors). Considering the home pitch advantage, better current form (2 wins in the last 5 matches vs Swindon's poor streak), and xG statistics showing an advantage for the hosts, I expect a victory for Notts County, although the class difference is not large enough to rule out a draw or a surprise by the visitors.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Notts County | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Notts County is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Notts County · 1.2 pts / match - Swindon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Swindon Town is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Notts County · 1.62 goals / match - Swindon Town
Notts County is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.04 goals / match - Notts County · 1.19 goals / match - Swindon Town
Notts County scores in 85% of matches (22 of 26 matches), while Swindon Town keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
Swindon Town scores in 81% of matches (21 of 26 matches), while Notts County keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Notts County
Over / Under - Swindon Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Swindon Town is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Notts County · 1.5 pts / match - Swindon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Notts County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Swindon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Notts County
Swindon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League Two).
Teams vs league
| Notts County | Liga | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.54 | 2.63 | ▲ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 55% | • 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▲ 62% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 25% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 69% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 77% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Notts County 0 - 1 - 0 Swindon Town. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Notts County vs Swindon Town?
The EFL League Two match finished Notts County 2:1 Swindon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Notts County vs Swindon Town?
Notts County score 1.50 goals per game on average and Swindon Town 1.62. The EFL League Two average is 2.63 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Notts County's matches and 54% of Swindon Town's.
What form are Notts County and Swindon Town in?
Over the last 5 games Notts County have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Swindon Town 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Notts County vs Swindon Town?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.